{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39d3477f-f971-4965-8130-40c26f682e03", "symbol": "BHG", "name": "BHG Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.539, "architecture_energy": 63.007, "architecture_maturity": 51.398, "architecture_confidence": 83.23, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 11.34, "upward_expansion": 11.97, "deceleration": 41.95, "rotation_down": 67.36, "downward_expansion": 82.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.86, 20.570909, 21.826857, 22.599871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.74, "trend_reference": 24.186, "distance_from_trend": -0.142479, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.66125, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.615535, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.294558, "excess_performance": -0.356052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085512, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.634536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1468907, "relative_activity": 0.863708, "balance": 0.634536, "dry_up": 1.328757, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100586, "annualized_volatility": 0.47661, "from_high_reference": -0.382002, "from_low_reference": 0.133333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.186, "fair_value_reference": 20.66125, "structural_low": 18.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.038659, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035463, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.605652, "worst_return": -0.345102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.197674, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.20336, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.354952, "worst_return": -0.491149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.13377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076235, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.587259, "worst_return": -0.690493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.369378, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169925, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100395, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144366, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.117021, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062295, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068284, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.46, "volume": 2761175, "typical_volume": 4181358.95, "trend": 13.405667, "fair_value": 81.395577, "relative_strength": -4.28307, "stage": 1, "regime": 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-33.218009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.912173, "energy": 70.673864, "activity_lines": [ 21.039333, 22.065454, 22.756381, 23.644473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.76, "volume": 2102480, "typical_volume": 1772726.45, "trend": 25.006333, "fair_value": 20.638942, "relative_strength": -34.870576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.052478, "energy": 65.56479, "activity_lines": [ 20.274666, 21.328909, 22.339952, 23.214774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.33, "volume": 1358264, "typical_volume": 1717801.05, "trend": 24.594667, "fair_value": 20.642596, "relative_strength": -33.43057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.902161, "energy": 70.555598, "activity_lines": [ 19.785333, 20.769818, 22.004667, 22.848559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.74, "volume": 1468907, "typical_volume": 1700699.6, "trend": 24.186, "fair_value": 20.66125, "relative_strength": -29.615535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.538556, "energy": 63.007372, "activity_lines": [ 19.86, 20.570909, 21.826857, 22.599871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }