{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39d38a55-ed1e-4aa2-81b7-4f047844b627", "symbol": "HURA", "name": "Global X Uranium Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.03, "architecture_energy": 64.323, "architecture_maturity": 21.249, "architecture_confidence": 91.522, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.78, "rotation_up": 15.6, "upward_expansion": 12.95, "deceleration": 41.42, "rotation_down": 67.98, "downward_expansion": 88.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.728666, 49.667818, 52.357, 54.13886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 51.73, "trend_reference": 56.884333, "distance_from_trend": -0.090611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.217015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225335, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.496964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.156668, "excess_performance": -0.277089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01702, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292376, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156668, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.385888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48400, "relative_activity": 0.91858, "balance": 0.385888, "dry_up": 0.831752, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073756, "annualized_volatility": 0.378149, "from_high_reference": -0.300473, "from_low_reference": 0.254564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.884333, "fair_value_reference": 42.217015, "structural_low": 45.009998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.033602, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.029778, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.291667, "worst_return": -0.149463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.173979, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.155667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.347118, "worst_return": 0.045826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.359744, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.327525, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.862911, "worst_return": 0.063134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -15.645766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.912963, "energy": 63.270845, "activity_lines": [ 52.516667, 53.775637, 55.806333, 57.060459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.689999, "volume": 71400, "typical_volume": 63510.0, "trend": 57.791271, "fair_value": 41.601935, "relative_strength": -17.823195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.904736, "energy": 59.577491, "activity_lines": [ 51.847333, 52.948909, 55.198905, 56.598068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.900002, "volume": 48300, "typical_volume": 62330.0, "trend": 57.606125, "fair_value": 41.749309, "relative_strength": -25.187457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.717799, "energy": 81.439618, "activity_lines": [ 49.745334, 51.443273, 54.196857, 55.83089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.369999, "volume": 39700, "typical_volume": 57605.0, "trend": 57.446333, "fair_value": 41.903463, "relative_strength": -22.704358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.830959, "energy": 80.303462, "activity_lines": [ 48.524, 50.468909, 53.412048, 55.170495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.919998, "volume": 38900, "typical_volume": 54305.0, "trend": 57.194, "fair_value": 42.046867, "relative_strength": -22.891211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.403413, "energy": 81.700221, "activity_lines": [ 47.677333, 49.559818, 52.63019, 54.491376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.73, "volume": 48400, "typical_volume": 52690.0, "trend": 56.884333, "fair_value": 42.217015, "relative_strength": -17.496964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.02956, "energy": 64.322604, "activity_lines": [ 48.728666, 49.667818, 52.357, 54.13886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }