{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39d85640-2b16-4ab1-b20e-b3b77a973f23", "symbol": "SOI", "name": "Soitec SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.961, "architecture_energy": 11.733, "architecture_maturity": 59.636, "architecture_confidence": 72.039, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.28, "rotation_up": 22.19, "upward_expansion": 43.19, "deceleration": 83.02, "rotation_down": 31.57, "downward_expansion": 32.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.451333, 111.25309, 121.796142, 110.52643 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 122.550003, "trend_reference": 90.901666, "distance_from_trend": 0.34816, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.668351, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.895054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 58.297322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.852562, "excess_performance": 2.678316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.34816, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.482898, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.895054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.232436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.582973, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.616179, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.852562, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.579424, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10802, "relative_activity": 0.549211, "balance": 0.579424, "dry_up": 0.918755, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.214029, "annualized_volatility": 1.207054, "from_high_reference": -0.3717, "from_low_reference": 4.365587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.901666, "fair_value_reference": 64.668351, "structural_low": 31.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.087607, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.071158, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.087607, "worst_return": -0.087607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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118.302908, 120.719237, 104.755892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.699997, "volume": 16627, "typical_volume": 22958.75, "trend": 84.951666, "fair_value": 63.616105, "relative_strength": 57.502433, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.291472, "energy": 18.805501, "activity_lines": [ 104.298664, 115.110544, 121.389237, 106.872128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.75, "volume": 19019, "typical_volume": 21173.45, "trend": 87.706666, "fair_value": 64.065417, "relative_strength": 44.533426, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.132227, "energy": 17.519925, "activity_lines": [ 104.536665, 111.107272, 120.954618, 108.278473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 122.550003, "volume": 10802, "typical_volume": 19668.2, "trend": 90.901666, "fair_value": 64.668351, "relative_strength": 58.297322, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.960656, "energy": 11.733299, "activity_lines": [ 110.451333, 111.25309, 121.796142, 110.52643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }