{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39d9b8b4-cb8a-44c0-b8c2-e7776c882fbd", "symbol": "600072", "name": "CSSC Science& Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.433, "architecture_energy": 61.661, "architecture_maturity": 50.982, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 26.4, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 54.5, "rotation_down": 55.4, "downward_expansion": 85.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.71, 8.788545, 9.906857, 10.652043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.86, "trend_reference": 11.414333, "distance_from_trend": -0.223783, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.885709, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.361934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.358668, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228223, "excess_performance": -0.185019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223783, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.361934, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228223, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461087, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99286819, "relative_activity": 0.83177, "balance": 0.461087, "dry_up": 1.007232, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102101, "annualized_volatility": 0.441864, "from_high_reference": -0.389387, "from_low_reference": 0.121519 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.414333, "fair_value_reference": 13.885709, "structural_low": 7.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.018916, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.01661, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.160483, "worst_return": -0.150583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.039204, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.02324, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.353039, "worst_return": -0.229841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.147577, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.994002, "worst_return": -0.25974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 8.949333, 9.744, 10.971571, 11.446194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.01, "volume": 123945540, "typical_volume": 131564392.65, "trend": 11.698667, "fair_value": 14.204078, "relative_strength": -30.158603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.527333, "energy": 90.658138, "activity_lines": [ 8.586667, 9.265273, 10.615095, 11.200215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.34, "volume": 122299738, "typical_volume": 129951191.1, "trend": 11.591667, "fair_value": 14.08491, "relative_strength": -27.602837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.919627, "energy": 86.477774, "activity_lines": [ 8.449333, 8.950364, 10.315571, 10.983527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.1, "volume": 135393221, "typical_volume": 127093543.0, "trend": 11.506333, "fair_value": 13.981328, "relative_strength": -20.773308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.746956, "energy": 67.433733, "activity_lines": [ 8.638, 8.860182, 10.112143, 10.822774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.86, "volume": 99286819, "typical_volume": 119368046.75, "trend": 11.414333, "fair_value": 13.885709, "relative_strength": -24.358668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.433332, "energy": 61.660649, "activity_lines": [ 8.71, 8.788545, 9.906857, 10.652043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }