{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39dc5edc-d5f4-4941-b917-a3761131ee07", "symbol": "CUT", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II MSCI GLOBAL TIMBER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 53.892, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.411, "architecture_energy": 67.83, "architecture_maturity": 6.921, "architecture_confidence": 73.809, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.84, "rotation_up": 74.71, "upward_expansion": 55.57, "deceleration": 18.11, "rotation_down": 14.16, "downward_expansion": 28.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.665227, 29.024278, 28.457035, 28.555848 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.755, "trend_reference": 28.972817, "distance_from_trend": 0.061512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.929975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027565, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.32776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015304, "excess_performance": -0.140929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001354, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086729, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095486, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.199705, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19125, "relative_activity": 1.64427, "balance": 2.199705, "dry_up": 0.857342, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030162, "annualized_volatility": 0.210724, "from_high_reference": -0.066616, "from_low_reference": 0.169392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.972817, "fair_value_reference": 29.929975, "structural_low": 26.3, "invalidation": 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"down", "direction": -31.700444, "energy": 22.124697, "activity_lines": [ 28.06476, 27.789049, 27.955167, 28.470996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.0339, "volume": 6750, "typical_volume": 16843.55, "trend": 28.947066, "fair_value": 29.90409, "relative_strength": -12.939708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.867506, "energy": 20.372239, "activity_lines": [ 28.107247, 27.856405, 27.918762, 28.411166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.4985, "volume": 5422, "typical_volume": 15618.25, "trend": 28.946317, "fair_value": 29.907157, "relative_strength": -9.739647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.50644, "energy": 14.077518, "activity_lines": [ 28.250867, 28.003969, 27.945288, 28.382226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.9863, "volume": 8247, "typical_volume": 12414.95, "trend": 28.94678, "fair_value": 29.906256, "relative_strength": -7.249957, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.056761, "energy": 15.917644, "activity_lines": [ 28.515887, 28.233309, 28.033312, 28.384806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.8034, "volume": 7094, "typical_volume": 11778.75, "trend": 28.960467, "fair_value": 29.912703, "relative_strength": -5.374922, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.292638, "energy": 38.899574, "activity_lines": [ 28.98542, 28.56796, 28.20282, 28.440072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.755, "volume": 19125, "typical_volume": 11631.3, "trend": 28.972817, "fair_value": 29.929975, "relative_strength": -5.32776, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.410581, "energy": 67.830009, "activity_lines": [ 29.665227, 29.024278, 28.457035, 28.555848 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }