{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "39e680fa-568f-49e0-960b-cd4e429f7b15",
    "symbol": "NMRK",
    "name": "Newmark Group Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -24.326,
    "architecture_energy": 9.817,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.595,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.231,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 61.55,
        "rotation_up": 19.81,
        "upward_expansion": 26.07,
        "deceleration": 59.14,
        "rotation_down": 37.2,
        "downward_expansion": 48.07
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.106667,
        15.197,
        15.167677,
        15.139252
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 14.81,
    "trend_reference": 15.301409,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.032115,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 12.869364,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150795,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -21.05346,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.115637,
    "excess_performance": -0.30309,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.032115,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.039838,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.150795,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.220469,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.210535,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.09975,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.115637,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.918948,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7596857,
      "relative_activity": 1.084033,
      "balance": 0.918948,
      "dry_up": 1.000293,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.082361,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.353556,
      "from_high_reference": -0.247294,
      "from_low_reference": 0.115383
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.301409,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.869364,
      "structural_low": 13.277948,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.035348,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.045448,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.277629,
        "worst_return": -0.209711,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.111173,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.128884,
        "regime_survival": 0.111111,
        "best_return": 0.549934,
        "worst_return": -0.27542,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.015349,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.049583,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.471913,
        "worst_return": -0.306567,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.134593,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.141459,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.268958,
        "worst_return": -0.412235,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.148117,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.152088,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.041314,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.083015,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.084359,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015987,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.274456,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004961,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.121018,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 5745529,
        "typical_volume": 7343221.8,
        "trend": 15.51329,
        "fair_value": 12.717544,
        "relative_strength": -14.43658,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 13.362124,
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          15.21274
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 15.39,
        "volume": 5812361,
        "typical_volume": 7120622.75,
        "trend": 15.44157,
        "fair_value": 12.773999,
        "relative_strength": -14.133606,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.987539,
        "energy": 13.969108,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.444,
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          15.204786
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.995,
        "volume": 8885288,
        "typical_volume": 7126418.65,
        "trend": 15.37921,
        "fair_value": 12.821964,
        "relative_strength": -16.467416,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.989629,
        "energy": 5.206818,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.297,
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          15.199845,
          15.175975
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.81,
        "volume": 7596857,
        "typical_volume": 7007958.4,
        "trend": 15.301409,
        "fair_value": 12.869364,
        "relative_strength": -21.05346,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.325822,
        "energy": 9.817267,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.106667,
          15.197,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}