{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39ed749b-bc20-41d0-9ec2-1c8a0b40fd90", "symbol": "FDR", "name": "Finder Energy Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.769, "architecture_energy": 31.717, "architecture_maturity": 72.122, "architecture_confidence": 78.95, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.84, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 23.12, "deceleration": 45.35, "rotation_down": 27.74, "downward_expansion": 59.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.343333, 0.330182, 0.360095, 0.405742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.34, "trend_reference": 0.447, "distance_from_trend": -0.239374, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.176799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.923086, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.716637, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160494, "excess_performance": -0.224199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.239374, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06322, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.923086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.594535, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160494, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939589, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1266079, "relative_activity": 0.426491, "balance": 0.939589, "dry_up": 1.000834, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149321, "annualized_volatility": 0.822041, "from_high_reference": -0.496296, "from_low_reference": 3.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.447, "fair_value_reference": 0.176799, "structural_low": 0.265, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.006603, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.003622, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.388889, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.081967, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.085236, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.246154, "worst_return": -0.12, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.089286, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.144036, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.039216, "worst_return": -0.138462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.34, "volume": 5142936, "typical_volume": 3121064.1, "trend": 0.451833, "fair_value": 0.169934, "relative_strength": -13.406294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.231885, "energy": 74.51658, "activity_lines": [ 0.306, 0.325545, 0.398, 0.433151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.33, "volume": 2997087, "typical_volume": 3057022.15, "trend": 0.451, "fair_value": 0.171594, "relative_strength": -16.926131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.032655, "energy": 55.597769, "activity_lines": [ 0.313333, 0.322818, 0.385238, 0.42529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.37, "volume": 5292582, "typical_volume": 3175866.6, "trend": 0.449333, "fair_value": 0.173517, "relative_strength": -7.943426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.901481, "energy": 39.364569, "activity_lines": [ 0.335667, 0.328455, 0.377738, 0.420065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.335, "volume": 2328536, "typical_volume": 3089121.85, "trend": 0.447667, "fair_value": 0.175126, "relative_strength": -19.499099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.594572, "energy": 32.663812, "activity_lines": [ 0.340667, 0.328364, 0.368, 0.412688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.34, "volume": 1266079, "typical_volume": 2968594.2, "trend": 0.447, "fair_value": 0.176799, "relative_strength": -21.716637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.769005, "energy": 31.716865, "activity_lines": [ 0.343333, 0.330182, 0.360095, 0.405742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }