{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39ee8deb-64b5-41db-97fa-9e85338f8ccc", "symbol": "300160", "name": "Jiangsu Xiuqiang Glasswork Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.134, "architecture_energy": 56.374, "architecture_maturity": 77.438, "architecture_confidence": 94.437, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 25.66, "upward_expansion": 9.79, "deceleration": 60.43, "rotation_down": 54.53, "downward_expansion": 83.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.243333, 4.289636, 4.553915, 4.814414 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.29, "trend_reference": 5.13708, "distance_from_trend": -0.164895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.289605, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.761143, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.254292, "excess_performance": -0.261692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.164895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072647, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237611, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022486, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442944, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32371771, "relative_activity": 0.753194, "balance": 0.442944, "dry_up": 0.764303, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074169, "annualized_volatility": 0.307, "from_high_reference": -0.349038, "from_low_reference": 0.067164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.13708, "fair_value_reference": 5.289605, "structural_low": 4.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.005492, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.179226, "worst_return": -0.086441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008547, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.015445, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.15613, "worst_return": -0.202393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.055241, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.053744, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.264466, "worst_return": -0.239564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 48549106.4, "trend": 5.256874, "fair_value": 5.320682, "relative_strength": -24.311666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.863385, "energy": 87.174989, "activity_lines": [ 4.284667, 4.459893, 4.766379, 5.006041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.07, "volume": 35655786, "typical_volume": 47125342.7, "trend": 5.210628, "fair_value": 5.309076, "relative_strength": -26.503064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.749298, "energy": 80.867702, "activity_lines": [ 4.203333, 4.36, 4.672884, 4.929468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.31, "volume": 29966629, "typical_volume": 45463391.05, "trend": 5.17271, "fair_value": 5.299313, "relative_strength": -20.194663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.834935, "energy": 61.963019, "activity_lines": [ 4.232, 4.320909, 4.610635, 4.871363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.29, "volume": 32371771, "typical_volume": 42979299.35, "trend": 5.13708, "fair_value": 5.289605, "relative_strength": -23.761143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.134223, "energy": 56.374243, "activity_lines": [ 4.243333, 4.289636, 4.553915, 4.814414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }