{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39efc2c2-6a9e-4b78-ace7-6a2f72164e6f", "symbol": "002295", "name": "Guangdong JingYi Metal CO.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.808, "architecture_energy": 61.193, "architecture_maturity": 62.13, "architecture_confidence": 89.607, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 17.87, "upward_expansion": 10.59, "deceleration": 56.11, "rotation_down": 65.04, "downward_expansion": 83.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.174, 8.424182, 9.256429, 9.779204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.69, "trend_reference": 10.499667, "distance_from_trend": -0.172355, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.36169, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.651472, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.250862, "excess_performance": -0.258262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172355, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104862, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.413855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256515, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250862, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.220326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17210488, "relative_activity": 1.012163, "balance": 0.220326, "dry_up": 1.068046, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095158, "annualized_volatility": 0.360017, "from_high_reference": -0.50172, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.499667, "fair_value_reference": 8.36169, "structural_low": 7.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.028324, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014015, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.204409, "worst_return": -0.171311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.101644, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.153129, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.620123, "worst_return": -0.178908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.09985, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.185289, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.528662, "worst_return": -0.173896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.03, "volume": 17000803, "typical_volume": 17697906.75, "trend": 11.026, "fair_value": 8.339111, "relative_strength": -29.885744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.951779, "energy": 91.739757, "activity_lines": [ 8.47, 9.055091, 9.835857, 10.313247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.49, "volume": 22557018, "typical_volume": 17515430.0, "trend": 10.847667, "fair_value": 8.342728, "relative_strength": -34.361736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.658182, "energy": 91.545025, "activity_lines": [ 8.061333, 8.671091, 9.567571, 10.085118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.07, "volume": 15874507, "typical_volume": 17129507.35, "trend": 10.654, "fair_value": 8.350507, "relative_strength": -27.813681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.420316, "energy": 78.692449, "activity_lines": [ 7.992667, 8.463455, 9.374286, 9.905914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.69, "volume": 17210488, "typical_volume": 17003669.25, "trend": 10.499667, "fair_value": 8.36169, "relative_strength": -25.651472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.808294, "energy": 61.193107, "activity_lines": [ 8.174, 8.424182, 9.256429, 9.779204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }