{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39f122f6-8c95-412f-8e7d-56df529e15f1", "symbol": "CRISIL", "name": "CRISIL Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 95.55, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.352, "architecture_energy": 65.767, "architecture_maturity": 9.412, "architecture_confidence": 76.659, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.87, "rotation_up": 72.92, "upward_expansion": 60.03, "deceleration": 24.36, "rotation_down": 18.96, "downward_expansion": 23.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 4397.229492, 4262.062651, 4174.982001, 4166.420432 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4607.0, "trend_reference": 4216.331234, "distance_from_trend": 0.092656, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4513.078053, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.020811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.177167, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021956, "excess_performance": 0.021753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092656, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.020811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09065, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051772, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142863, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.360691, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335088, "relative_activity": 1.157904, "balance": 3.360691, "dry_up": 1.427094, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046208, "annualized_volatility": 0.276923, "from_high_reference": -0.144058, "from_low_reference": 0.252458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4216.331234, "fair_value_reference": 4513.078053, "structural_low": 3678.366407, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075553, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.065367, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.176116, "worst_return": -0.074349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.140059, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.125614, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.250296, "worst_return": -0.048688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.060045, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.056662, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228382, "worst_return": -0.153243, "sufficient": 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7.585374, "energy": 17.106359, "activity_lines": [ 4199.337923, 4119.86297, 4100.780304, 4133.928093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4338.0, "volume": 214255, "typical_volume": 291523.2, "trend": 4219.372542, "fair_value": 4507.872181, "relative_strength": -0.455734, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.60824, "energy": 35.972046, "activity_lines": [ 4262.033984, 4168.80372, 4125.578827, 4141.412209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4607.0, "volume": 335088, "typical_volume": 289391.8, "trend": 4216.331234, "fair_value": 4513.078053, "relative_strength": 5.177167, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.35205, "energy": 65.767082, "activity_lines": [ 4397.229492, 4262.062651, 4174.982001, 4166.420432 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }