{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39f33883-6d07-4934-b507-e604d5f952de", "symbol": "VOTR", "name": "Voltatron AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.763, "architecture_energy": 5.611, "architecture_maturity": 73.537, "architecture_confidence": 56.265, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.67, "rotation_up": 28.48, "upward_expansion": 25.88, "deceleration": 49.27, "rotation_down": 17.91, "downward_expansion": 47.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.001333, 3.930636, 3.91731, 4.037753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.27, "trend_reference": 4.233667, "distance_from_trend": 0.008582, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.626026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.626031, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.076914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002336, "excess_performance": -0.066976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.626031, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01944, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.475947, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46380, "relative_activity": 2.301628, "balance": 1.475947, "dry_up": 1.169039, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060349, "annualized_volatility": 0.361694, "from_high_reference": -0.516968, "from_low_reference": 0.230548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.233667, "fair_value_reference": 2.626026, "structural_low": 3.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.011719, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.040308, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 1.286585, "worst_return": -0.416393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.112607, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.149363, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.409817, "worst_return": -0.345574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.183421, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.156572, "worst_return": -0.491148, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.184397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178138, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014583, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043673, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.795, "volume": 20160, "typical_volume": 7977.0, "trend": 1.739067, "fair_value": 2.289321, "relative_strength": 5.687326, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.362178, "energy": 30.463899, "activity_lines": [ 3.853, 3.831909, 3.926286, 4.092452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.895, "volume": 17775, "typical_volume": 18551.5, "trend": 4.300833, "fair_value": 2.598269, "relative_strength": -17.99381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.492524, "energy": 22.999737, "activity_lines": [ 3.877667, 3.844182, 3.908238, 4.065398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.875, "volume": 11885, "typical_volume": 18611.95, "trend": 4.272667, "fair_value": 2.610737, "relative_strength": -20.006286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.175061, "energy": 23.472223, "activity_lines": [ 3.875, 3.851818, 3.891786, 4.037925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.27, "volume": 46380, "typical_volume": 20150.95, "trend": 4.233667, "fair_value": 2.626026, "relative_strength": -14.076914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.763161, "energy": 5.610558, "activity_lines": [ 4.001333, 3.930636, 3.91731, 4.037753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }