{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39f8d53b-1d64-43b3-acab-ed4cb236989c", "symbol": "300791", "name": "Sirio Pharma Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.004, "architecture_energy": 33.135, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.937, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.12, "rotation_up": 27.03, "upward_expansion": 16.53, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 37.64, "downward_expansion": 66.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.689334, 16.550728, 17.159213, 18.034106 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.950001, "trend_reference": 19.489149, "distance_from_trend": -0.130285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.054405, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.154799, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.300181, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.275641, "excess_performance": -0.283041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114645, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.154799, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243002, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093941, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.275641, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.629204, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7700943, "relative_activity": 1.049256, "balance": 0.629204, "dry_up": 1.167657, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07921, "annualized_volatility": 0.330014, "from_high_reference": -0.359168, "from_low_reference": 0.099935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.489149, "fair_value_reference": 20.054405, "structural_low": 15.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.057299, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032096, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.337931, "worst_return": -0.190367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.084682, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.095134, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.320207, "worst_return": -0.275492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009163, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084687, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.120219, "worst_return": -0.356225, "sufficient": false }, { 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16.39, 16.961463, 18.112985, 19.24596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.120001, "volume": 6374791, "typical_volume": 7414697.25, "trend": 20.571815, "fair_value": 20.032857, "relative_strength": -34.491382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.488599, "energy": 75.166228, "activity_lines": [ 16.248, 16.711129, 17.830773, 18.943004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 11776013, "typical_volume": 7476888.4, "trend": 20.375815, "fair_value": 20.038101, "relative_strength": -23.560037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.824963, "energy": 57.957117, "activity_lines": [ 16.436667, 16.670483, 17.654038, 18.709339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.63, "volume": 7862991, "typical_volume": 7328662.6, "trend": 20.054149, "fair_value": 20.038232, "relative_strength": -29.023658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.338503, "energy": 60.475074, "activity_lines": [ 16.194, 16.427388, 17.375588, 18.403157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.17, "volume": 6939813, "typical_volume": 7301466.8, "trend": 19.786149, "fair_value": 20.048448, "relative_strength": -20.093292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.200857, "energy": 41.965863, "activity_lines": [ 16.519334, 16.497334, 17.269472, 18.217083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 7700943, "typical_volume": 7339431.9, "trend": 19.489149, "fair_value": 20.054405, "relative_strength": -24.300181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.003996, "energy": 33.134776, "activity_lines": [ 16.689334, 16.550728, 17.159213, 18.034106 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }