{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a00acb9-32f7-4538-b524-55f499ceb50b", "symbol": "VSOL", "name": "VanEck Solana ETN A", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.245, "architecture_energy": 32.63, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.094, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.83, "rotation_up": 24.12, "upward_expansion": 9.71, "deceleration": 65.49, "rotation_down": 43.06, "downward_expansion": 68.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.661467, 3.656964, 3.733638, 3.839426 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.592, "trend_reference": 4.115633, "distance_from_trend": -0.12723, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.242775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.504058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.002249, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.110671, "excess_performance": -0.163982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12723, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188755, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.504058, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056708, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.430022, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110671, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.224118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8260, "relative_activity": 0.986911, "balance": 0.224118, "dry_up": 3.660352, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074589, "annualized_volatility": 0.5011, "from_high_reference": -0.690265, "from_low_reference": 0.143221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.115633, "fair_value_reference": 7.242775, "structural_low": 3.142, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.02552, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010913, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.270847, "worst_return": -0.411396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.248301, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.267784, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.20311, "worst_return": -0.293491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.43699, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.470084, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.43699, "worst_return": -0.43699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.803924, "energy": 26.965708, "activity_lines": [ 3.792333, 3.678018, 3.788405, 3.92672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.569, "volume": 544, "typical_volume": 8051.55, "trend": 4.2137, "fair_value": 7.271297, "relative_strength": -42.936357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.157988, "energy": 25.847858, "activity_lines": [ 3.724733, 3.660127, 3.758457, 3.879535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.592, "volume": 8260, "typical_volume": 8369.55, "trend": 4.115633, "fair_value": 7.242775, "relative_strength": -43.002249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.245392, "energy": 32.629995, "activity_lines": [ 3.661467, 3.656964, 3.733638, 3.839426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }