{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a041c18-aa70-4542-abfd-91af68201b56", "symbol": "AWK", "name": "American Water Works Company, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 65.411, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.848, "architecture_energy": 46.818, "architecture_maturity": 12.234, "architecture_confidence": 56.406, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.57, "rotation_up": 60.72, "upward_expansion": 46.58, "deceleration": 30.42, "rotation_down": 14.36, "downward_expansion": 23.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 2291.6, 2280.436364, 2250.420373, 2261.725386 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2290.0, "trend_reference": 2283.330631, "distance_from_trend": 0.002921, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2372.010761, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034574, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.792734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.030162, "excess_performance": 0.024505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002921, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034574, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029139, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030162, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.005385, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011333, "annualized_volatility": 0.144158, "from_high_reference": -0.132224, "from_low_reference": 0.080189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2283.330631, "fair_value_reference": 2372.010761, "structural_low": 2120.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.023912, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.076191, "worst_return": -0.064672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.113202, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.160341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076528, "worst_return": -0.141075, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.107401, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.169699, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076865, "worst_return": -0.205453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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2291.548649, "fair_value": 2374.198411, "relative_strength": -7.557424, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.514496, "energy": 50.994629, "activity_lines": [ 2293.2, 2246.727273, 2241.194963, 2261.49493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2290.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 808.8, "trend": 2288.80931, "fair_value": 2373.470702, "relative_strength": -6.818485, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.368295, "energy": 51.519807, "activity_lines": [ 2295.333333, 2260.2, 2244.176544, 2261.395017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2290.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 789.2, "trend": 2286.069971, "fair_value": 2372.742992, "relative_strength": -7.170694, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.128745, "energy": 62.108803, "activity_lines": [ 2294.8, 2271.436364, 2247.144248, 2261.471836 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2290.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 789.2, "trend": 2283.330631, "fair_value": 2372.010761, "relative_strength": -6.792734, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.847714, "energy": 46.817812, "activity_lines": [ 2291.6, 2280.436364, 2250.420373, 2261.725386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }