{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a0786b7-689c-480a-a30d-933a727a52c8", "symbol": "300070", "name": "Beijing Originwater Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.374, "architecture_energy": 25.963, "architecture_maturity": 96.672, "architecture_confidence": 79.997, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.24, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 20.8, "deceleration": 46.87, "rotation_down": 29.31, "downward_expansion": 59.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.478667, 3.431356, 3.519659, 3.638752 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.5, "trend_reference": 3.787971, "distance_from_trend": -0.076022, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.530297, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227424, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.486772, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131514, "excess_performance": -0.138913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.227424, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101931, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131514, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.348172, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170530010, "relative_activity": 1.081852, "balance": 0.348172, "dry_up": 1.366953, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055707, "annualized_volatility": 0.236673, "from_high_reference": -0.273859, "from_low_reference": 0.097179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.787971, "fair_value_reference": 4.530297, "structural_low": 3.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.005174, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.441176, "median_excess_return": 0.000453, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.206304, "worst_return": -0.214405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.017997, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.044771, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.854037, "worst_return": -0.318665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028398, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.030935, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.303493, "worst_return": -0.215627, "sufficient": true }, 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"energy": 74.709007, "activity_lines": [ 3.353823, 3.423429, 3.613928, 3.731347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.43, "volume": 285175322, "typical_volume": 171396032.75, "trend": 3.834637, "fair_value": 4.564625, "relative_strength": -17.306705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.942937, "energy": 58.110621, "activity_lines": [ 3.373723, 3.408357, 3.581266, 3.704058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.38, "volume": 229815642, "typical_volume": 168326686.75, "trend": 3.815638, "fair_value": 4.55252, "relative_strength": -18.034104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.538235, "energy": 49.944002, "activity_lines": [ 3.384, 3.393015, 3.547603, 3.674727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.56, "volume": 176358142, "typical_volume": 160038460.95, "trend": 3.801971, "fair_value": 4.541569, "relative_strength": -11.497001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.959888, "energy": 32.696901, "activity_lines": [ 3.453333, 3.417044, 3.534845, 3.658234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.5, "volume": 170530010, "typical_volume": 157627831.7, "trend": 3.787971, "fair_value": 4.530297, "relative_strength": -16.486772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.374406, "energy": 25.963327, "activity_lines": [ 3.478667, 3.431356, 3.519659, 3.638752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }