{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a0da84b-96cf-4436-8ea9-5071c645f1a3", "symbol": "B7E", "name": "Blue Cap AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.473, "architecture_energy": 74.432, "architecture_maturity": 11.487, "architecture_confidence": 82.323, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.51, "rotation_up": 8.64, "upward_expansion": 16.26, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 79.92, "downward_expansion": 94.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.473333, 16.852036, 17.202086, 17.350447 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.4, "trend_reference": 17.607733, "distance_from_trend": -0.068591, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.996288, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.283246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088889, "excess_performance": -0.153529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035083, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172832, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414785, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5608, "relative_activity": 1.320089, "balance": 0.414785, "dry_up": 0.977237, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045394, "annualized_volatility": 0.205683, "from_high_reference": -0.299145, "from_low_reference": 0.025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.607733, "fair_value_reference": 16.996288, "structural_low": 16.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.007663, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.023503, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.242857, "worst_return": -0.126214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001886, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016996, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.174312, "worst_return": -0.169903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068807, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.148793, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.101796, "worst_return": -0.215678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005587, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.594146, "energy": 13.413913, "activity_lines": [ 17.7008, 17.736873, 17.665705, 17.717888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.4, "volume": 1361, "typical_volume": 4412.45, "trend": 17.766067, "fair_value": 17.078657, "relative_strength": -8.638846, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.343345, "energy": 17.460908, "activity_lines": [ 17.6072, 17.677309, 17.641505, 17.692551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.0, "volume": 6603, "typical_volume": 4622.75, "trend": 17.692733, "fair_value": 17.049627, "relative_strength": -15.044943, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.175543, "energy": 58.692245, "activity_lines": [ 17.064533, 17.3588, 17.486829, 17.578611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.5, "volume": 784, "typical_volume": 4350.7, "trend": 17.6594, "fair_value": 17.033119, "relative_strength": -13.209377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.194855, "energy": 66.787466, "activity_lines": [ 16.793333, 17.160618, 17.388819, 17.50166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.55, "volume": 3611, "typical_volume": 4434.45, "trend": 17.6344, "fair_value": 17.014602, "relative_strength": -14.490454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.553897, "energy": 71.445011, "activity_lines": [ 16.613333, 17.007746, 17.30081, 17.430086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.4, "volume": 5608, "typical_volume": 4248.2, "trend": 17.607733, "fair_value": 16.996288, "relative_strength": -17.283246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.473496, "energy": 74.432364, "activity_lines": [ 16.473333, 16.852036, 17.202086, 17.350447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }