{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a0eb4bc-3208-496b-b975-9fd896b7b15c", "symbol": "00643", "name": "CAPITAL SZSE SME 100 INDEX EXCHANGE TRADED FUND", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.508, "architecture_energy": 26.397, "architecture_maturity": 45.702, "architecture_confidence": 72.425, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.86, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 22.3, "deceleration": 68.86, "rotation_down": 59.53, "downward_expansion": 35.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.952667, 19.352, 19.570143, 19.345957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.290001, "trend_reference": 19.002667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015121, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.036282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.088688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086149, "excess_performance": -0.293163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015121, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.374296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.874466, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16324095, "relative_activity": 1.459678, "balance": 0.874466, "dry_up": 1.324813, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050405, "annualized_volatility": 0.184204, "from_high_reference": -0.08361, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.002667, "fair_value_reference": 14.036282, "structural_low": 17.120001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031674, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.014388, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.102424, "worst_return": -0.061338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033937, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.054976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105746, "worst_return": -0.133295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025678, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248166, "worst_return": -0.100698, "sufficient": false }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130496, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025397, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117424, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045836, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", 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"fair_value": 13.942564, "relative_strength": -19.389262, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.632239, "energy": 14.983467, "activity_lines": [ 19.721334, 19.887637, 19.712, 19.347849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.83, "volume": 16577808, "typical_volume": 11491290.95, "trend": 18.887, "fair_value": 13.97282, "relative_strength": -20.678581, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.637876, "energy": 15.626297, "activity_lines": [ 19.339334, 19.675273, 19.663095, 19.34929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.48, "volume": 10033009, "typical_volume": 11081924.0, "trend": 18.934667, "fair_value": 14.003333, "relative_strength": -20.823002, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.896215, "energy": 24.506689, "activity_lines": [ 18.946667, 19.424546, 19.577571, 19.323032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.290001, "volume": 16324095, "typical_volume": 11183353.7, "trend": 19.002667, "fair_value": 14.036282, "relative_strength": -19.088688, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.508453, "energy": 26.396734, "activity_lines": [ 18.952667, 19.352, 19.570143, 19.345957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }