{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a137d6e-73c4-4e95-9f57-003cf6abcd9c", "symbol": "ERG", "name": "ERG S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 89.497, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.66, "architecture_energy": 25.764, "architecture_maturity": 42.265, "architecture_confidence": 69.095, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.38, "rotation_up": 17.02, "upward_expansion": 21.72, "deceleration": 66.08, "rotation_down": 59.54, "downward_expansion": 35.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.22, 22.720727, 22.766364, 22.534991 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.82, "trend_reference": 22.257059, "distance_from_trend": -0.019637, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.571374, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.116369, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010416, "excess_performance": -0.160476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019637, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131164, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010416, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691063, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1015695, "relative_activity": 0.924838, "balance": 0.691063, "dry_up": 1.133269, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047271, "annualized_volatility": 0.334934, "from_high_reference": -0.129298, "from_low_reference": 0.222251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.257059, "fair_value_reference": 20.571374, "structural_low": 19.527459, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028011, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.031934, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.13289, "worst_return": -0.092645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.043147, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.058141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137774, "worst_return": -0.051508, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029476, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093295, "worst_return": -0.053537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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22.854764, 22.558559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.42, "volume": 944836, "typical_volume": 1212788.5, "trend": 22.234702, "fair_value": 20.564184, "relative_strength": -7.693266, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.241667, "energy": 17.803027, "activity_lines": [ 22.924, 23.211636, 22.854724, 22.574059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.059999, "volume": 1777198, "typical_volume": 1167525.45, "trend": 22.250837, "fair_value": 20.567657, "relative_strength": -9.683122, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.545889, "energy": 17.744634, "activity_lines": [ 22.561333, 22.98, 22.824857, 22.562787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.82, "volume": 1015695, "typical_volume": 1098241.45, "trend": 22.257059, "fair_value": 20.571374, "relative_strength": -13.116369, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.659567, "energy": 25.76407, "activity_lines": [ 22.22, 22.720727, 22.766364, 22.534991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }