{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a1f3d90-9ec9-407c-83db-7b1f46f06f1c", "symbol": "MINR", "name": "First Trust Indxx Future Economy Metals UCITS ETF Class A USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 69.187, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.387, "architecture_energy": 56.153, "architecture_maturity": 10.13, "architecture_confidence": 68.676, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.21, "rotation_up": 17.5, "upward_expansion": 20.19, "deceleration": 44.39, "rotation_down": 68.26, "downward_expansion": 61.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.548667, 31.108, 32.137405, 32.194947 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.51, "trend_reference": 32.171, "distance_from_trend": -0.05163, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.554654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.352714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.713098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01054, "excess_performance": -0.181432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05163, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071147, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.352714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33721, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.141827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.141827, "dry_up": 0.332881, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047198, "annualized_volatility": 0.359478, "from_high_reference": -0.161352, "from_low_reference": 1.027243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.171, "fair_value_reference": 22.554654, "structural_low": 27.18, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068156, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.208226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01038, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-26", "close": 20.777, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-02", "close": 20.552999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, 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"2026-06-26", "close": 31.735001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2042.95, "trend": 31.398167, "fair_value": 22.168575, "relative_strength": 5.94124, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.034075, "energy": 15.448349, "activity_lines": [ 33.332, 33.621818, 33.184143, 32.609474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.735001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1788.0, "trend": 31.604667, "fair_value": 22.243312, "relative_strength": 2.081884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.010451, "energy": 18.265418, "activity_lines": [ 32.639, 33.283728, 33.085691, 32.631205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.4, "volume": 929, "typical_volume": 1781.2, "trend": 31.765167, "fair_value": 22.306543, "relative_strength": -2.475942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.368025, "energy": 29.8664, "activity_lines": [ 31.709, 32.726455, 32.862262, 32.553484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.375, "volume": 433, "typical_volume": 1622.6, "trend": 31.893834, "fair_value": 22.368608, "relative_strength": -1.857065, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.701618, "energy": 39.681573, "activity_lines": [ 31.113, 32.196728, 32.645786, 32.463796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.83, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 1423.0, "trend": 32.010667, "fair_value": 22.433198, "relative_strength": -0.953465, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.003431, "energy": 51.364369, "activity_lines": [ 30.803667, 31.817909, 32.493262, 32.395162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.51, "volume": 1332, "typical_volume": 1435.95, "trend": 32.112667, "fair_value": 22.494386, "relative_strength": -3.322094, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.398822, "energy": 55.756608, "activity_lines": [ 30.635333, 31.432, 32.315167, 32.298344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.51, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1327.8, "trend": 32.171, "fair_value": 22.554654, "relative_strength": -6.713098, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.387126, "energy": 56.152994, "activity_lines": [ 30.548667, 31.108, 32.137405, 32.194947 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }