{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a228f13-1681-4a17-8ce9-09b23cb0752b", "symbol": "SIEN", "name": "Siemens Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.245, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.336, "architecture_energy": 42.997, "architecture_maturity": 37.347, "architecture_confidence": 67.354, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.4, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 63.58, "deceleration": 77.0, "rotation_down": 28.0, "downward_expansion": 29.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 5268.418848, 5284.399174, 5251.974265, 5167.094691 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5260.470215, "trend_reference": 5110.570719, "distance_from_trend": 0.029331, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3997.917169, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315803, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.454226, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002327, "excess_performance": 0.05234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029331, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03197, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315803, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117295, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024542, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021454, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002327, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.444444, "dry_up": 1.940051, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010807, "annualized_volatility": 0.306253, "from_high_reference": -0.047846, "from_low_reference": 0.179957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5110.570719, "fair_value_reference": 3997.917169, "structural_low": 4458.189941, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.003922, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.248533, "worst_return": -0.145949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.081719, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.10378, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.317637, "worst_return": -0.145949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025463, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034588, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.468808, "worst_return": -0.212764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054688, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069262, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5260.470215, "volume": 570, "typical_volume": 135.95, "trend": 5086.804508, "fair_value": 3967.497391, "relative_strength": 3.034169, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.070749, "energy": 33.235026, "activity_lines": [ 5288.071387, 5311.251278, 5221.347312, 5145.452865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5260.470215, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 135.95, "trend": 5098.687614, "fair_value": 3982.70728, "relative_strength": 2.382359, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.244192, "energy": 27.710089, "activity_lines": [ 5276.782129, 5296.196955, 5237.570385, 5156.657104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5260.470215, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 135.95, "trend": 5110.570719, "fair_value": 3997.917169, "relative_strength": 2.454226, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.336083, "energy": 42.997267, "activity_lines": [ 5268.418848, 5284.399174, 5251.974265, 5167.094691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }