{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a233f2b-02aa-458b-b6ce-0cbdf6ddfcaa", "symbol": "RAVD", "name": "Ravad Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.876, "architecture_energy": 62.906, "architecture_maturity": 91.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.528, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.8, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 46.92, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.046267, 7.689582, 190.153224, 318.961349 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.132, "trend_reference": 463.692833, "distance_from_trend": -0.982463, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 654.564648, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.639494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988921, "excess_performance": -1.017821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982463, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987576, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.030433, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.986395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.805478, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988921, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.869086, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27384, "relative_activity": 1.251291, "balance": 0.869086, "dry_up": 1.050145, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.195079, "annualized_volatility": 6.39634, "from_high_reference": -0.989821, "from_low_reference": 0.210119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 463.692833, "fair_value_reference": 654.564648, "structural_low": 6.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.007509, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.028577, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.150685, "worst_return": -0.331063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029895, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.114383, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.092197, "worst_return": -0.27829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022607, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.293362, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.043491, "worst_return": -0.402964, "sufficient": false }, { 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[ 7.058533, 199.846326, 402.389467, 485.166297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.003, "volume": 3240, "typical_volume": 20945.65, "trend": 541.577233, "fair_value": 667.548186, "relative_strength": -98.925733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.663693, "energy": 89.011653, "activity_lines": [ 7.025267, 135.568435, 353.239686, 449.480224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.55, "volume": 7626, "typical_volume": 19899.7, "trend": 522.7589, "fair_value": 664.286969, "relative_strength": -98.833313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.292636, "energy": 88.292541, "activity_lines": [ 7.187333, 84.289944, 307.544843, 415.026854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.413, "volume": 42901, "typical_volume": 21653.8, "trend": 504.789334, "fair_value": 661.083206, "relative_strength": -98.697972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.859442, "energy": 67.759278, "activity_lines": [ 7.627067, 45.974727, 265.178143, 381.843248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.173, "volume": 14017, "typical_volume": 21038.25, "trend": 486.185101, "fair_value": 657.840084, "relative_strength": -98.666598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.373737, "energy": 66.922186, "activity_lines": [ 7.889267, 20.495636, 226.073286, 349.803484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.132, "volume": 27384, "typical_volume": 21884.6, "trend": 463.692833, "fair_value": 654.564648, "relative_strength": -98.639494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.875505, "energy": 62.90563, "activity_lines": [ 8.046267, 7.689582, 190.153224, 318.961349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }