{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a24a4f8-b4f6-4281-8dc9-f7f815ade9b7", "symbol": "TBN", "name": "Tamboran Resources Corporation", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.294, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.858, "architecture_energy": 5.316, "architecture_maturity": 19.655, "architecture_confidence": 60.162, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.36, "rotation_up": 32.05, "upward_expansion": 24.98, "deceleration": 48.62, "rotation_down": 30.4, "downward_expansion": 29.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.232, 0.229909, 0.235946, 0.236876 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 0.233646, "distance_from_trend": -0.015604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.180423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.877708, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.15, "excess_performance": 0.086294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274782, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147087, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018777, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.15, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.828787, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5928903, "relative_activity": 0.313431, "balance": 2.828787, "dry_up": 1.078448, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100334, "annualized_volatility": 0.448354, "from_high_reference": -0.320588, "from_low_reference": 0.483871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.233646, "fair_value_reference": 0.180423, "structural_low": 0.1925, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.040001, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.047013, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.037146, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.325582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.111686, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.320002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.013572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.382353, "worst_return": -0.263855, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170732, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.22, "volume": 2037346, "typical_volume": 16787088.65, "trend": 0.228312, "fair_value": 0.177879, "relative_strength": 5.278753, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.418689, "energy": 34.056429, "activity_lines": [ 0.227667, 0.234818, 0.241503, 0.237009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.225, "volume": 13719875, "typical_volume": 16531132.65, "trend": 0.229146, "fair_value": 0.178224, "relative_strength": 7.435437, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.229196, "energy": 42.733902, "activity_lines": [ 0.225333, 0.232091, 0.240006, 0.236796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.215, "volume": 8135870, "typical_volume": 16374309.25, "trend": 0.230146, "fair_value": 0.178599, "relative_strength": 2.258852, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.989308, "energy": 52.932609, "activity_lines": [ 0.221, 0.228, 0.237533, 0.235883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.245, "volume": 45697323, "typical_volume": 18450918.65, "trend": 0.231646, "fair_value": 0.179229, "relative_strength": 15.861488, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.072273, "energy": 16.589319, "activity_lines": [ 0.228, 0.23, 0.237917, 0.236841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.235, "volume": 21838306, "typical_volume": 19224424.8, "trend": 0.232812, "fair_value": 0.179795, "relative_strength": 7.937086, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.694998, "energy": 4.672, "activity_lines": [ 0.231333, 0.230273, 0.237229, 0.237058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 5928903, "typical_volume": 18916159.4, "trend": 0.233646, "fair_value": 0.180423, "relative_strength": 1.877708, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.857708, "energy": 5.31616, "activity_lines": [ 0.232, 0.229909, 0.235946, 0.236876 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }