{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a33036c-be09-4732-838e-d21eb5384584", "symbol": "3325", "name": "Casing Macron Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.047, "architecture_energy": 56.349, "architecture_maturity": 71.187, "architecture_confidence": 87.345, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.25, "rotation_up": 13.68, "upward_expansion": 10.61, "deceleration": 39.85, "rotation_down": 66.2, "downward_expansion": 86.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.82, 12.148182, 12.359762, 12.650538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.4, "trend_reference": 13.253333, "distance_from_trend": -0.139839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.036737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.505138, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.202265, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22973, "excess_performance": -0.671102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.505138, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.482023, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22973, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.988092, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 534885, "relative_activity": 0.350462, "balance": 0.988092, "dry_up": 0.443153, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097166, "annualized_volatility": 0.363475, "from_high_reference": -0.451923, "from_low_reference": 0.041096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.253333, "fair_value_reference": 23.036737, "structural_low": 10.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.039157, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03945, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.166144, "worst_return": -0.175439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.093501, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.128506, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.129707, "worst_return": -0.281747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.198178, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.260448, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.698745, "worst_return": -0.361919, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.383067, "energy": 34.005527, "activity_lines": [ 12.286667, 12.453636, 12.538333, 12.882581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.0, "volume": 474019, "typical_volume": 1555422.25, "trend": 13.418333, "fair_value": 23.158853, "relative_strength": -44.513291, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.806577, "energy": 41.471984, "activity_lines": [ 12.106667, 12.357273, 12.47381, 12.780753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.4, "volume": 534885, "typical_volume": 1526230.25, "trend": 13.253333, "fair_value": 23.036737, "relative_strength": -48.202265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.046547, "energy": 56.348744, "activity_lines": [ 11.82, 12.148182, 12.359762, 12.650538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }