{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a335e8e-fd15-40ae-a841-b4674759caed", "symbol": "CLMA", "name": "Guinness Sustainable Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.726, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.86, "architecture_energy": 27.111, "architecture_maturity": 67.497, "architecture_confidence": 77.708, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.99, "rotation_up": 24.5, "upward_expansion": 54.36, "deceleration": 91.08, "rotation_down": 39.56, "downward_expansion": 22.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.061067, 7.122164, 7.119624, 7.005204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.267, "trend_reference": 6.880233, "distance_from_trend": 0.056214, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.060122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199151, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.533879, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075, "excess_performance": -0.095892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056214, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199151, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023481, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055339, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.079816, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2208, "relative_activity": 0.51746, "balance": 1.079816, "dry_up": 0.382763, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028982, "annualized_volatility": 0.190175, "from_high_reference": -0.027956, "from_low_reference": 0.250775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.880233, "fair_value_reference": 6.060122, "structural_low": 6.099, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024939, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.047697, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.09047, "worst_return": -0.000469, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018912, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030131, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203477, "worst_return": -0.054548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.076155, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140825, "worst_return": 0.011484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.076533, 6.953101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.94, "volume": 1305, "typical_volume": 4753.35, "trend": 6.815033, "fair_value": 6.05484, "relative_strength": -6.958171, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.22966, "energy": 24.990892, "activity_lines": [ 7.133533, 7.2058, 7.081176, 6.962583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.031, "volume": 1139, "typical_volume": 4602.6, "trend": 6.8397, "fair_value": 6.055179, "relative_strength": -5.481047, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.107728, "energy": 27.961274, "activity_lines": [ 7.072333, 7.170836, 7.093867, 6.976516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.873, "volume": 1881, "typical_volume": 4341.15, "trend": 6.855633, "fair_value": 6.055571, "relative_strength": -8.069101, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.433922, "energy": 22.29136, "activity_lines": [ 6.988133, 7.107927, 7.089071, 6.978665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.267, "volume": 2208, "typical_volume": 4267.0, "trend": 6.880233, "fair_value": 6.060122, "relative_strength": -5.533879, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.860226, "energy": 27.111324, "activity_lines": [ 7.061067, 7.122164, 7.119624, 7.005204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }