{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a344371-8c36-4590-938d-4bc888bc3d1b", "symbol": "VCEU", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Europe Value Factor UCITS ETF-C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.804, "architecture_energy": 93.3, "architecture_maturity": 39.083, "architecture_confidence": 69.904, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 86.02, "upward_expansion": 99.42, "deceleration": 39.26, "rotation_down": 10.12, "downward_expansion": 21.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 473.186668, 466.876367, 456.180953, 448.482581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 478.399994, "trend_reference": 439.488333, "distance_from_trend": 0.088539, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 345.271474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385576, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.441147, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109205, "excess_performance": -0.061687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088539, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048927, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071205, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014411, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016831, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109205, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.854943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 528, "relative_activity": 0.579901, "balance": 2.854943, "dry_up": 1.618342, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015131, "annualized_volatility": 0.131421, "from_high_reference": -0.004785, "from_low_reference": 0.302123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 439.488333, "fair_value_reference": 345.271474, "structural_low": 397.100006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.010792, "positive_rate": 0.702128, "directional_follow_through": 0.702128, "median_excess_return": 0.001001, "regime_survival": 0.765957, "best_return": 0.081987, "worst_return": -0.080293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.046162, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.00698, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.087862, "worst_return": -0.053261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.075327, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.018284, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.183845, "worst_return": -0.062331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 341.273077, "relative_strength": -0.47352, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.238401, "energy": 93.097932, "activity_lines": [ 461.82334, 455.698184, 446.559762, 440.870968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 469.200012, "volume": 2297, "typical_volume": 933.2, "trend": 435.198334, "fair_value": 342.542628, "relative_strength": 0.289742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.185269, "energy": 92.719714, "activity_lines": [ 465.196675, 459.092732, 449.501906, 443.199893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 476.0, "volume": 1622, "typical_volume": 923.95, "trend": 437.32, "fair_value": 343.893269, "relative_strength": 0.97736, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.842119, "energy": 93.464872, "activity_lines": [ 469.510006, 463.050004, 452.861906, 445.832259 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 478.399994, "volume": 528, "typical_volume": 910.5, "trend": 439.488333, "fair_value": 345.271474, "relative_strength": -1.441147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.804014, "energy": 93.299973, "activity_lines": [ 473.186668, 466.876367, 456.180953, 448.482581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }