{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a3933c7-4568-4ec2-80be-46e5bc59fab5", "symbol": "ALGT", "name": "Allegiant Travel Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.485, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.799, "architecture_energy": 22.332, "architecture_maturity": 54.309, "architecture_confidence": 85.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.22, "rotation_up": 23.47, "upward_expansion": 59.41, "deceleration": 90.94, "rotation_down": 30.98, "downward_expansion": 14.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.495333, 102.240182, 96.69619, 93.939828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 95.61, "trend_reference": 92.433833, "distance_from_trend": 0.034362, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 71.080978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345086, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.244879, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167088, "excess_performance": -0.354541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034362, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196145, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012449, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048838, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.160504, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2707022, "relative_activity": 0.999074, "balance": 1.160504, "dry_up": 0.859946, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132433, "annualized_volatility": 0.64252, "from_high_reference": -0.226644, "from_low_reference": 0.99895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.433833, "fair_value_reference": 71.080978, "structural_low": 69.64, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.100638, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.136044, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.191304, "worst_return": -0.326801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012805, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.372907, "worst_return": -0.358893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.208609, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.313377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.159502, "worst_return": -0.257717, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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2700038.85, "trend": 92.4125, "fair_value": 71.115013, "relative_strength": 9.906561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.470972, "energy": 24.321006, "activity_lines": [ 101.742, 103.237091, 96.25669, 93.733538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.61, "volume": 2707022, "typical_volume": 2709529.85, "trend": 92.433833, "fair_value": 71.080978, "relative_strength": 1.244879, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.798806, "energy": 22.331926, "activity_lines": [ 98.495333, 102.240182, 96.69619, 93.939828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }