{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a3e8cca-ac42-4301-8c5b-c44c176db4dd", "symbol": "GIII", "name": "G-III Apparel Group Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.57, "architecture_energy": 45.905, "architecture_maturity": 40.78, "architecture_confidence": 85.176, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.37, "rotation_up": 57.0, "upward_expansion": 79.61, "deceleration": 58.2, "rotation_down": 19.64, "downward_expansion": 6.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.558667, 35.091655, 33.800938, 32.627075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35.46, "trend_reference": 31.373251, "distance_from_trend": 0.130262, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.409214, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.232584, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.166512, "excess_performance": -0.020942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130262, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061719, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083204, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042326, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166512, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.192558, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2019422, "relative_activity": 0.800448, "balance": 1.192558, "dry_up": 0.820762, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071834, "annualized_volatility": 0.320612, "from_high_reference": -0.055375, "from_low_reference": 0.486351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.373251, "fair_value_reference": 28.409214, "structural_low": 24.519919, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.015485, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006299, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.164895, "worst_return": -0.128881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.067419, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017573, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.402932, "worst_return": -0.260378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019121, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.064521, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.81218, "worst_return": -0.250494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 34.75, "volume": 2929977, "typical_volume": 2827186.95, "trend": 30.618937, "fair_value": 28.028345, "relative_strength": 3.334499, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.73826, "energy": 50.50412, "activity_lines": [ 34.296264, 33.697839, 32.217425, 31.421001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.42, "volume": 2553093, "typical_volume": 2841971.95, "trend": 30.794629, "fair_value": 28.127042, "relative_strength": 9.446788, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.271823, "energy": 47.420984, "activity_lines": [ 34.625899, 34.155002, 32.643051, 31.730747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.95, "volume": 1935105, "typical_volume": 2837507.8, "trend": 30.949341, "fair_value": 28.219543, "relative_strength": 9.354747, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.573719, "energy": 44.169996, "activity_lines": [ 34.782667, 34.458661, 33.000382, 31.998835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.41, "volume": 1775065, "typical_volume": 2647674.05, "trend": 31.182941, "fair_value": 28.320129, "relative_strength": 12.78597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.95864, "energy": 50.867382, "activity_lines": [ 35.407333, 34.913158, 33.470009, 32.351136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.46, "volume": 2019422, "typical_volume": 2522863.45, "trend": 31.373251, "fair_value": 28.409214, "relative_strength": 4.232584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.570427, "energy": 45.905464, "activity_lines": [ 35.558667, 35.091655, 33.800938, 32.627075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }