{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a43d648-101c-41f8-84fd-c62ad60ff3d7", "symbol": "FLOC", "name": "Flowco Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.159, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.798, "architecture_energy": 28.883, "architecture_maturity": 8.491, "architecture_confidence": 55.077, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.66, "rotation_up": 22.71, "upward_expansion": 10.23, "deceleration": 55.02, "rotation_down": 54.23, "downward_expansion": 49.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.833333, 21.080364, 22.299398, 22.501081 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.79, "trend_reference": 22.484177, "distance_from_trend": -0.030874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.374298, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069485, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.095055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039319, "excess_performance": -0.164944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030874, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062365, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069485, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039319, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.556676, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2401259, "relative_activity": 0.687189, "balance": 0.556676, "dry_up": 0.604853, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098775, "annualized_volatility": 0.380857, "from_high_reference": -0.228946, "from_low_reference": 0.571514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.484177, "fair_value_reference": 20.374298, "structural_low": 18.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08139, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 29.384947, "volume": 7600228, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 27.710005, "volume": 4663627, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 27.42595, 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"regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.82, "volume": 4224939, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.24, "volume": 1859099, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.15, "volume": 2083249, "typical_volume": 3734940.9, "trend": 22.345657, "fair_value": 20.355655, "relative_strength": -5.065836, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.212873, "energy": 56.996926, "activity_lines": [ 20.496667, 21.422909, 22.62295, 22.662589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.45, "volume": 2110602, "typical_volume": 3749058.65, "trend": 22.397714, "fair_value": 20.35682, "relative_strength": -4.689844, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.142014, "energy": 49.400693, "activity_lines": [ 20.396667, 21.067818, 22.391948, 22.540289 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.79, "volume": 2401259, "typical_volume": 3494321.45, "trend": 22.484177, "fair_value": 20.374298, "relative_strength": -2.095055, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.798277, "energy": 28.883407, "activity_lines": [ 20.833333, 21.080364, 22.299398, 22.501081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }