{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a4505fc-e883-41f0-b8c4-f967ae150949", "symbol": "IVV", "name": "iShares S&P 500 ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.381, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.589, "architecture_energy": 68.042, "architecture_maturity": 72.624, "architecture_confidence": 71.89, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.06, "rotation_up": 53.8, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.45, "rotation_down": 29.2, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.583999, 71.357132, 70.293174, 68.906698 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 72.959999, "trend_reference": 67.508849, "distance_from_trend": 0.080747, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.667567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.596827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.127561, "excess_performance": 0.063855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080747, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013025, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243617, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043096, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025968, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127561, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.489877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1367313, "relative_activity": 0.920392, "balance": 2.489877, "dry_up": 1.161148, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015254, "annualized_volatility": 0.097086, "from_high_reference": -0.005317, "from_low_reference": 0.188467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.508849, "fair_value_reference": 58.667567, "structural_low": 61.389999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.013666, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.011063, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.059047, "worst_return": -0.055107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025603, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.021567, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.137732, "worst_return": -0.060103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.087104, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.070601, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.178381, "worst_return": -0.127769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 1508527.9, "trend": 67.364426, "fair_value": 58.48382, "relative_strength": 2.771436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.88599, "energy": 60.999383, "activity_lines": [ 71.019332, 70.966451, 69.842807, 68.545693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.959999, "volume": 1367313, "typical_volume": 1485577.45, "trend": 67.508849, "fair_value": 58.667567, "relative_strength": 2.596827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.589258, "energy": 68.041573, "activity_lines": [ 71.583999, 71.357132, 70.293174, 68.906698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }