{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a45594b-2ce3-43b4-a4c9-8fb2d9ee01c8", "symbol": "CRCL", "name": "Corcel Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.418, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -44.496, "architecture_energy": 64.473, "architecture_maturity": 19.825, "architecture_confidence": 64.931, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.18, "rotation_up": 18.39, "upward_expansion": 22.43, "deceleration": 43.42, "rotation_down": 73.05, "downward_expansion": 66.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003637, 0.003781, 0.004003, 0.004078 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00355, "trend_reference": 0.004047, "distance_from_trend": -0.122807, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.003584, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.288673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.028986, "excess_performance": -0.02225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122807, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026202, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009497, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22677, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213517, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028986, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.673573, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10901475, "relative_activity": 0.240205, "balance": 1.673573, "dry_up": 0.52304, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093174, "annualized_volatility": 0.329942, "from_high_reference": -0.317308, "from_low_reference": 0.314815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.004047, "fair_value_reference": 0.003584, "structural_low": 0.00335, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069864, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095123, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.61194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.584615, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.617519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.507692, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.566254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.807692, "worst_return": -0.78, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136612, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.326797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.00365, "volume": 34447750, "typical_volume": 53636392.6, "trend": 0.004047, "fair_value": 0.003572, "relative_strength": -13.468652, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.107661, "energy": 50.002793, "activity_lines": [ 0.003833, 0.003945, 0.004139, 0.004141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00355, "volume": 21299584, "typical_volume": 51448995.5, "trend": 0.004039, "fair_value": 0.003577, "relative_strength": -16.415142, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.574387, "energy": 59.669124, "activity_lines": [ 0.00372, 0.003856, 0.004069, 0.004109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00355, "volume": 10901475, "typical_volume": 45384024.5, "trend": 0.004047, "fair_value": 0.003584, "relative_strength": -16.288673, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.495891, "energy": 64.473467, "activity_lines": [ 0.003637, 0.003781, 0.004003, 0.004078 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }