{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a492153-c83a-435c-b0c6-e60b8c278817", "symbol": "600395", "name": "Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.292, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.47, "architecture_energy": 32.728, "architecture_maturity": 38.725, "architecture_confidence": 53.42, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.24, "rotation_up": 22.97, "upward_expansion": 15.49, "deceleration": 65.95, "rotation_down": 42.74, "downward_expansion": 65.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.825333, 4.82, 5.055476, 5.22643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.97, "trend_reference": 5.347, "distance_from_trend": -0.070507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.372737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.524686, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.091408, "excess_performance": -0.048204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006842, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074959, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056635, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00339, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091408, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.146911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 173166616, "relative_activity": 1.142554, "balance": 1.146911, "dry_up": 1.168358, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089305, "annualized_volatility": 0.387332, "from_high_reference": -0.228261, "from_low_reference": 0.106904 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.347, "fair_value_reference": 5.372737, "structural_low": 4.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.004918, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.37037, "median_excess_return": -0.008189, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.206823, "worst_return": -0.137432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017428, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.030711, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.219616, "worst_return": -0.098361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.021708, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.036696, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.199907, "worst_return": -0.057692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 4.67, "volume": 212153575, "typical_volume": 156871670.2, "trend": 5.33, "fair_value": 5.390465, "relative_strength": -7.721364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.395502, "energy": 74.264559, "activity_lines": [ 4.635333, 4.850364, 5.127619, 5.275247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.94, "volume": 157375524, "typical_volume": 151249884.7, "trend": 5.336667, "fair_value": 5.381021, "relative_strength": -2.627494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.114821, "energy": 49.761129, "activity_lines": [ 4.734667, 4.830545, 5.087286, 5.250086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.97, "volume": 173166616, "typical_volume": 151561004.0, "trend": 5.347, "fair_value": 5.372737, "relative_strength": -4.524686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.470429, "energy": 32.728127, "activity_lines": [ 4.825333, 4.82, 5.055476, 5.22643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }