{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a4ab912-8dfb-4c9e-be8d-0b38a897155b", "symbol": "601828", "name": "Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.247, "architecture_energy": 36.394, "architecture_maturity": 81.624, "architecture_confidence": 57.016, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.08, "rotation_up": 24.04, "upward_expansion": 16.3, "deceleration": 65.85, "rotation_down": 43.45, "downward_expansion": 66.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.183333, 2.179636, 2.279143, 2.34086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.22, "trend_reference": 2.435333, "distance_from_trend": -0.08842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.103141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.284596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.011294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.159091, "excess_performance": -0.115887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065729, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.284596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159091, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.279156, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 159654966, "relative_activity": 1.306144, "balance": 1.279156, "dry_up": 1.479298, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068261, "annualized_volatility": 0.263785, "from_high_reference": -0.308411, "from_low_reference": 0.093596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.435333, "fair_value_reference": 3.103141, "structural_low": 2.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.039316, "positive_rate": 0.325, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.025837, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.379464, "worst_return": -0.209332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.035573, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.071911, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.307692, "worst_return": -0.401149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.113943, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.143561, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.192308, "worst_return": -0.427473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.513453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171123, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057878, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 2.12, "volume": 175557117, "typical_volume": 116297221.95, "trend": 2.469667, "fair_value": 3.13674, "relative_strength": -16.512143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.713003, "energy": 57.513623, "activity_lines": [ 2.136, 2.189818, 2.307, 2.372538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.21, "volume": 173796891, "typical_volume": 120592732.05, "trend": 2.451333, "fair_value": 3.120192, "relative_strength": -12.649559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.709012, "energy": 47.833641, "activity_lines": [ 2.16, 2.181455, 2.291857, 2.355785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.22, "volume": 159654966, "typical_volume": 122233800.85, "trend": 2.435333, "fair_value": 3.103141, "relative_strength": -14.011294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.246979, "energy": 36.39382, "activity_lines": [ 2.183333, 2.179636, 2.279143, 2.34086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }