{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a4f6a2a-1e38-4fdc-8b8b-ef2ce98b221c", "symbol": "WSPX", "name": "WisdomTree S&P 500", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.07, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.884, "architecture_energy": 65.484, "architecture_maturity": 80.786, "architecture_confidence": 64.144, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.02, "rotation_up": 52.83, "upward_expansion": 82.44, "deceleration": 71.2, "rotation_down": 28.99, "downward_expansion": 11.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.042667, 39.890273, 39.323119, 38.434323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.849998, "trend_reference": 37.383167, "distance_from_trend": 0.092738, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.875022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281568, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.565078, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.15526, "excess_performance": -0.015632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092738, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040821, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03386, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008323, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.15526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.322913, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 234721, "relative_activity": 1.764938, "balance": 2.322913, "dry_up": 1.441257, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018774, "annualized_volatility": 0.116671, "from_high_reference": -0.005196, "from_low_reference": 0.243531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.383167, "fair_value_reference": 31.875022, "structural_low": 33.650002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.015916, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.695652, "median_excess_return": -0.005048, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.079597, "worst_return": -0.102286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054478, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.016877, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.106362, "worst_return": -0.177382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074578, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001089, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.135658, "worst_return": -0.090166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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38.494595, 37.68314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.755001, "volume": 273805, "typical_volume": 122140.45, "trend": 36.9505, "fair_value": 31.573996, "relative_strength": -3.14431, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.4722, "energy": 68.647349, "activity_lines": [ 39.846333, 39.662546, 38.715667, 37.873613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.790001, "volume": 151233, "typical_volume": 123709.45, "trend": 37.094667, "fair_value": 31.671207, "relative_strength": -2.820721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.237877, "energy": 64.130842, "activity_lines": [ 39.847667, 39.714364, 38.918596, 38.056807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.325001, "volume": 106938, "typical_volume": 125522.4, "trend": 37.228834, "fair_value": 31.767586, "relative_strength": -4.493145, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.567637, "energy": 57.761301, "activity_lines": [ 39.691001, 39.664364, 39.057858, 38.200699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.849998, "volume": 234721, "typical_volume": 132991.05, "trend": 37.383167, "fair_value": 31.875022, "relative_strength": -3.565078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.884022, "energy": 65.483512, "activity_lines": [ 40.042667, 39.890273, 39.323119, 38.434323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }