{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a561180-dd50-4541-92bc-f9b9853ad3e6", "symbol": "TDI", "name": "TOUCHSTONE DYNAMIC INTERNATIONAL ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.293, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.709, "architecture_energy": 35.4, "architecture_maturity": 41.251, "architecture_confidence": 71.009, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.47, "rotation_up": 47.96, "upward_expansion": 74.28, "deceleration": 60.43, "rotation_down": 21.39, "downward_expansion": 3.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.3358, 45.051476, 44.851278, 44.290422 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.48, "trend_reference": 43.58261, "distance_from_trend": 0.06648, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.105046, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.404016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.085843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092909, "excess_performance": -0.094545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06648, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055338, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.404016, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002905, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092909, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.661463, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 575828, "relative_activity": 1.383043, "balance": 1.661463, "dry_up": 0.739503, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037377, "annualized_volatility": 0.219586, "from_high_reference": -0.004711, "from_low_reference": 0.356496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.58261, "fair_value_reference": 33.105046, "structural_low": 39.37, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028185, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.00213, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.077692, "worst_return": -0.110609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.091723, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.006904, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.163027, "worst_return": 0.031524, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.195017, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00708, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.199691, "worst_return": 0.190344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 405440.75, "trend": 43.178983, "fair_value": 32.918656, "relative_strength": 1.474047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.297826, "energy": 15.578085, "activity_lines": [ 44.443327, 44.674789, 44.474963, 43.955826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.2655, "volume": 127050, "typical_volume": 394767.4, "trend": 43.380277, "fair_value": 33.008126, "relative_strength": 2.389423, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.25376, "energy": 21.416911, "activity_lines": [ 44.719167, 44.757436, 44.616307, 44.09044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.48, "volume": 575828, "typical_volume": 416348.7, "trend": 43.58261, "fair_value": 33.105046, "relative_strength": -0.085843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.709353, "energy": 35.399821, "activity_lines": [ 45.3358, 45.051476, 44.851278, 44.290422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }