{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a59da31-3325-4570-bd63-5de6989f01db", "symbol": "CAST", "name": "Castellum AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.091, "architecture_energy": 80.703, "architecture_maturity": 43.201, "architecture_confidence": 84.281, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 76.05, "upward_expansion": 95.72, "deceleration": 40.17, "rotation_down": 15.46, "downward_expansion": 17.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.246668, 130.966365, 127.563095, 124.173656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 136.550003, "trend_reference": 119.78, "distance_from_trend": 0.140007, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 120.007961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137841, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.583301, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.246463, "excess_performance": 0.184968, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.140007, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116781, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065833, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086451, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.246463, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.139285, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4877128, "relative_activity": 0.807275, "balance": 1.139285, "dry_up": 0.97044, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038053, "annualized_volatility": 0.275792, "from_high_reference": -0.004012, "from_low_reference": 0.362095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.78, "fair_value_reference": 120.007961, "structural_low": 100.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.025371, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.031188, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.133675, "worst_return": -0.132335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.05216, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.06773, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121962, "worst_return": -0.177655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008594, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026508, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.112413, "worst_return": -0.252013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6733445, "typical_volume": 6735836.05, "trend": 117.93, "fair_value": 119.752146, "relative_strength": 5.125526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.526225, "energy": 71.483027, "activity_lines": [ 130.066666, 128.070908, 125.038809, 122.006451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.850006, "volume": 4989130, "typical_volume": 6493565.65, "trend": 118.878333, "fair_value": 119.872967, "relative_strength": 6.46191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.210979, "energy": 69.092939, "activity_lines": [ 131.470001, 129.348182, 126.228095, 123.033548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 136.550003, "volume": 4877128, "typical_volume": 6041473.3, "trend": 119.78, "fair_value": 120.007961, "relative_strength": 6.583301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.090649, "energy": 80.702551, "activity_lines": [ 133.246668, 130.966365, 127.563095, 124.173656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }