{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a5b9f45-e04c-497b-86da-2c2ac0b6c43c", "symbol": "600545", "name": "Saurer Intelligent Technology Co. Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.385, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.26, "architecture_energy": 38.039, "architecture_maturity": 5.073, "architecture_confidence": 41.871, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.0, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 17.8, "deceleration": 61.91, "rotation_down": 65.7, "downward_expansion": 42.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.171333, 4.902364, 5.396762, 5.116688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.45, "trend_reference": 4.572333, "distance_from_trend": -0.026755, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.768782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.607205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.077592, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.765873, "excess_performance": 0.809077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.607205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.604906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.170776, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.542355, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.765873, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.666297, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 411259213, "relative_activity": 0.759419, "balance": 1.666297, "dry_up": 0.827882, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.258946, "annualized_volatility": 0.979124, "from_high_reference": -0.468339, "from_low_reference": 0.934783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.572333, "fair_value_reference": 2.768782, "structural_low": 2.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026667, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012346, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.076555, "worst_return": -0.130435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031186, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425781, "worst_return": -0.209486, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.216165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.091514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.445312, "worst_return": -0.434783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007905, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.090822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.267943, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.229091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076555, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147465, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075314, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144695, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019531, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.21345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.412533, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061425, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.55, "volume": 65745207, "typical_volume": 43470544.1, "trend": 2.666, "fair_value": 3.305321, "relative_strength": -14.580941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.344517, "energy": 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"volume": 448507816, "typical_volume": 612512680.5, "trend": 4.426667, "fair_value": 2.738654, "relative_strength": 14.644522, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.32061, "energy": 15.847717, "activity_lines": [ 5.481333, 5.998364, 5.750714, 5.200774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.83, "volume": 474672940, "typical_volume": 605705250.05, "trend": 4.467333, "fair_value": 2.747628, "relative_strength": 5.761476, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.810674, "energy": 27.145929, "activity_lines": [ 4.752, 5.550364, 5.612333, 5.16228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.82, "volume": 458899857, "typical_volume": 568848252.6, "trend": 4.509333, "fair_value": 2.75641, "relative_strength": 4.310735, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.792741, "energy": 40.427313, "activity_lines": [ 4.247333, 5.145818, 5.474524, 5.120516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.45, "volume": 411259213, "typical_volume": 541544310.3, "trend": 4.572333, "fair_value": 2.768782, "relative_strength": 17.077592, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.25962, "energy": 38.039252, "activity_lines": [ 4.171333, 4.902364, 5.396762, 5.116688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }