{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a5c2b55-190e-48a6-b0f9-43084ca10d6c", "symbol": "TLR2", "name": "Tilray Brands, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.085, "architecture_energy": 79.639, "architecture_maturity": 94.85, "architecture_confidence": 94.446, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 28.1, "upward_expansion": 18.93, "deceleration": 39.41, "rotation_down": 56.55, "downward_expansion": 92.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.778333, 3.859727, 4.225238, 4.632882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.98, "trend_reference": 5.212833, "distance_from_trend": -0.2365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.702147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.659891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.456001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366242, "excess_performance": -0.540489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.2365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.659891, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.56456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366242, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5931, "relative_activity": 4.443029, "balance": 0.766081, "dry_up": 1.962132, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075474, "annualized_volatility": 0.386665, "from_high_reference": -0.791623, "from_low_reference": 0.175775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.212833, "fair_value_reference": 11.702147, "structural_low": 3.385, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.074074, "positive_rate": 0.238095, "directional_follow_through": 0.761905, "median_excess_return": -0.110514, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.861453, "worst_return": -0.314861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.118514, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.200369, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.867338, "worst_return": -0.553343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.301643, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.38632, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.939568, "worst_return": -0.747456, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.318976, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.655962, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.14964, "worst_return": -0.787592, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.638175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.368944, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"close": 3.45, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1061.7, "trend": 5.404167, "fair_value": 11.952276, "relative_strength": -61.720086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.286211, "energy": 93.880986, "activity_lines": [ 3.726667, 3.941273, 4.393381, 4.82443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.76, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1046.05, "trend": 5.304833, "fair_value": 11.833173, "relative_strength": -57.976592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.965467, "energy": 85.779563, "activity_lines": [ 3.708, 3.872545, 4.2935, 4.718355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.98, "volume": 5931, "typical_volume": 1334.9, "trend": 5.212833, "fair_value": 11.702147, "relative_strength": -56.456001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.085446, "energy": 79.638614, "activity_lines": [ 3.778333, 3.859727, 4.225238, 4.632882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }