{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a5c58df-b368-494f-ae35-9a824612b97d", "symbol": "6428", "name": "Taiwan Taomee Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.116, "architecture_energy": 38.976, "architecture_maturity": 49.282, "architecture_confidence": 67.539, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.16, "rotation_up": 48.4, "upward_expansion": 75.27, "deceleration": 70.75, "rotation_down": 22.33, "downward_expansion": 4.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.423333, 26.646364, 23.017857, 20.340215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.0, "trend_reference": 17.231667, "distance_from_trend": 0.973112, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.184167, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.790507, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 65.928288, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.72, "excess_performance": 1.278628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.973112, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.385739, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.790507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.552115, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.659283, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.889782, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.72, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.696149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 873130, "relative_activity": 2.830001, "balance": 1.696149, "dry_up": 1.382808, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.26629, "annualized_volatility": 1.836086, "from_high_reference": -0.353612, "from_low_reference": 2.049327 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.231667, "fair_value_reference": 12.184167, "structural_low": 11.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.025105, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.02753, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.20283, "worst_return": -0.125333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012552, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.076412, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100478, "worst_return": -0.138667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070239, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142259, "worst_return": 0.018692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.072642, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.143997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.043062, "worst_return": -0.102222, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08811, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029268, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004237, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018315, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.533088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.338583, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 11.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35513.65, "trend": 11.378333, "fair_value": 10.842628, "relative_strength": -10.873062, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.557992, "energy": 30.726531, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.269496, "energy": 93.33249, "activity_lines": [ 22.973334, 18.761818, 15.930952, 14.734194 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 25.65, "volume": 1306008, "typical_volume": 194782.05, "trend": 13.906667, "fair_value": 11.539295, "relative_strength": 32.843979, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.125444, "energy": 78.854049, "activity_lines": [ 25.12, 20.430909, 17.009762, 15.52129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 25.799999, "volume": 251189, "typical_volume": 207241.4, "trend": 14.371667, "fair_value": 11.632244, "relative_strength": 26.948929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.130615, "energy": 81.201948, "activity_lines": [ 26.513333, 21.909091, 18.040238, 16.288602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.5, "volume": 117323, "typical_volume": 213107.55, "trend": 14.728333, "fair_value": 11.697949, "relative_strength": 14.083433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.57226, "energy": 77.620283, "activity_lines": [ 25.996667, 22.556364, 18.693095, 16.813011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.0, "volume": 263612, "typical_volume": 224779.85, "trend": 15.268333, "fair_value": 11.801474, "relative_strength": 49.667903, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.240891, "energy": 51.783948, "activity_lines": [ 26.693333, 24.054545, 19.822143, 17.669247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.6, "volume": 619914, "typical_volume": 255565.1, "trend": 15.7, "fair_value": 11.887372, "relative_strength": 28.056479, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.575312, "energy": 38.343741, "activity_lines": [ 25.316667, 24.674545, 20.550238, 18.27129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.85, "volume": 108558, "typical_volume": 260759.45, "trend": 16.006667, "fair_value": 11.947308, "relative_strength": 9.862491, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.982975, "energy": 26.111804, "activity_lines": [ 23.83, 24.418182, 20.860714, 18.603548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.4, "volume": 104929, "typical_volume": 265705.9, "trend": 16.475, "fair_value": 12.036731, "relative_strength": 29.942509, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.233305, "energy": 26.565579, "activity_lines": [ 24.18, 24.857273, 21.561905, 19.20957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 34.0, "volume": 873130, "typical_volume": 308526.35, "trend": 17.231667, "fair_value": 12.184167, "relative_strength": 65.928288, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.115712, "energy": 38.975752, "activity_lines": [ 27.423333, 26.646364, 23.017857, 20.340215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }