{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a649efa-53f8-496a-b881-1ab2692b6e15", "symbol": "HTC", "name": "Haad Thip Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.882, "architecture_energy": 77.376, "architecture_maturity": 29.045, "architecture_confidence": 65.696, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 80.86, "upward_expansion": 92.65, "deceleration": 42.72, "rotation_down": 12.42, "downward_expansion": 14.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.24, 16.052727, 15.78652, 15.602196 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.700001, "trend_reference": 15.348397, "distance_from_trend": 0.088062, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.59087, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144551, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.292206, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145616, "excess_performance": -0.046709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088062, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.144551, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114128, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082788, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145616, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.547505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1308700, "relative_activity": 1.705691, "balance": 3.547505, "dry_up": 1.624949, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023491, "annualized_volatility": 0.103908, "from_high_reference": -0.011834, "from_low_reference": 0.21245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.348397, "fair_value_reference": 14.59087, "structural_low": 14.48077, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.012739, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006195, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.139297, "worst_return": -0.051613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.022356, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.028229, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.239278, "worst_return": -0.071688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026861, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.025544, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.150437, "worst_return": -0.186866, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 797270.0, "trend": 15.16659, "fair_value": 14.567394, "relative_strength": -9.517485, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.505608, "energy": 51.234017, "activity_lines": [ 15.853333, 15.783636, 15.544573, 15.400132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.1, "volume": 722500, "typical_volume": 753995.0, "trend": 15.223782, "fair_value": 14.573708, "relative_strength": -8.900529, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.995132, "energy": 55.356685, "activity_lines": [ 15.953333, 15.854545, 15.613223, 15.460352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.0, "volume": 394100, "typical_volume": 732360.0, "trend": 15.277641, "fair_value": 14.580046, "relative_strength": -8.140967, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.568246, "energy": 51.873069, "activity_lines": [ 15.993333, 15.894545, 15.668317, 15.510431 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 1308700, "typical_volume": 767255.0, "trend": 15.348397, "fair_value": 14.59087, "relative_strength": -3.292206, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.881588, "energy": 77.376399, "activity_lines": [ 16.24, 16.052727, 15.78652, 15.602196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }