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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.886, "architecture_energy": 35.487, "architecture_maturity": 77.519, "architecture_confidence": 60.253, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.88, "rotation_up": 40.15, "upward_expansion": 66.46, "deceleration": 64.29, "rotation_down": 26.45, "downward_expansion": 16.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 263.481333, 264.556909, 258.384196, 247.454902 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 262.19, "trend_reference": 232.801855, "distance_from_trend": 0.126237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 156.301687, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.677461, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.658213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.215301, "excess_performance": 0.089677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.126237, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13737, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.677461, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006384, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.116582, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029721, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.963591, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1367194, "relative_activity": 0.725519, "balance": 0.963591, "dry_up": 0.962244, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059687, "annualized_volatility": 0.34042, "from_high_reference": -0.077608, "from_low_reference": 0.685741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 232.801855, "fair_value_reference": 156.301687, "structural_low": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.085061, "energy": 52.130824, "activity_lines": [ 266.808667, 264.799383, 252.467619, 240.887314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 267.68, "volume": 2022847, "typical_volume": 1897812.45, "trend": 228.267197, "fair_value": 154.188036, "relative_strength": 20.269073, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.925241, "energy": 50.012155, "activity_lines": [ 267.652, 266.265636, 255.30234, 243.587252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 256.42, "volume": 2067076, "typical_volume": 1914811.2, "trend": 230.394219, "fair_value": 155.224507, "relative_strength": 13.483216, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.384902, "energy": 40.550971, "activity_lines": [ 264.454667, 264.999636, 256.733353, 245.403562 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 262.19, "volume": 1367194, "typical_volume": 1884436.0, "trend": 232.801855, "fair_value": 156.301687, "relative_strength": 11.658213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.885924, "energy": 35.487256, "activity_lines": [ 263.481333, 264.556909, 258.384196, 247.454902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }