{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a6bf99e-2d4c-4898-8beb-78248f5e15fb", "symbol": "HAMAT", "name": "Hamat Group Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.004, "architecture_energy": 67.451, "architecture_maturity": 84.264, "architecture_confidence": 95.841, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.65, "rotation_down": 55.95, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.948, 15.156364, 341.337619, 671.987527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.14, "trend_reference": 1061.324333, "distance_from_trend": -0.986677, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1297.955067, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989106, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.013902, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990959, "excess_performance": -1.019859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986677, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989106, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.118945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.990139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.732315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.548321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31690, "relative_activity": 0.345162, "balance": 0.548321, "dry_up": 0.821179, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 9.353933, "annualized_volatility": 6.324045, "from_high_reference": -0.992844, "from_low_reference": 0.029862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1061.324333, "fair_value_reference": 1297.955067, "structural_low": 13.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.037991, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.02933, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.27007, "worst_return": -0.27521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050182, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.008464, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.349989, "worst_return": -0.405791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.168919, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.131103, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.80553, "worst_return": -0.5474, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 4547, "typical_volume": 91821.25, "trend": 1177.570333, "fair_value": 1315.315366, "relative_strength": -99.015076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.501711, "energy": 80.828085, "activity_lines": [ 15.314667, 42.656364, 499.662857, 818.295269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.48, "volume": 17589, "typical_volume": 91425.05, "trend": 1119.819667, "fair_value": 1306.642715, "relative_strength": -98.945845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.027835, "energy": 67.824647, "activity_lines": [ 15.364, 15.396182, 416.298524, 743.321699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.14, "volume": 31690, "typical_volume": 91811.85, "trend": 1061.324333, "fair_value": 1297.955067, "relative_strength": -99.013902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.004258, "energy": 67.450637, "activity_lines": [ 14.948, 15.156364, 341.337619, 671.987527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }