{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a6efa2b-6e34-4c92-be2e-cf613452624f", "symbol": "TAI3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Long Taiwan ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.718, "architecture_energy": 24.141, "architecture_maturity": 81.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.368, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.63, "rotation_up": 20.53, "upward_expansion": 54.29, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 39.21, "downward_expansion": 20.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.039999, 39.265454, 38.82238, 34.720215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 38.599998, "trend_reference": 29.14, "distance_from_trend": 0.32464, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.010149, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.966914, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 65.308477, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.368098, "excess_performance": 1.316863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.32464, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.492828, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.966914, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.748443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.653085, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.914683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.368098, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6848, "relative_activity": 4.190686, "balance": 0.762182, "dry_up": 2.374396, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216919, "annualized_volatility": 1.02922, "from_high_reference": -0.257692, "from_low_reference": 3.073878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.14, "fair_value_reference": 13.010149, "structural_low": 14.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142932, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.130819, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.909091, "worst_return": -0.063501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.204382, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.170978, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.727273, "worst_return": 0.015111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.09242, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223526, "worst_return": -0.038686, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.266047, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.127054, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266047, "worst_return": 0.266047, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046379, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181689, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100882, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.226744, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.227074, "active": false }, { "regime": 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1342.0, "trend": 21.513333, "fair_value": 11.267753, "relative_strength": 140.4112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.363869, "energy": 70.400345, "activity_lines": [ 41.86, 38.407273, 30.94119, 26.692688 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 50.549999, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 1344.1, "trend": 22.85, "fair_value": 11.547841, "relative_strength": 171.157241, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.658629, "energy": 74.664071, "activity_lines": [ 45.283333, 41.292727, 33.297143, 28.566021 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 42.0, "volume": 101, "typical_volume": 1347.7, "trend": 23.846667, "fair_value": 11.773178, "relative_strength": 115.604929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.898125, "energy": 65.219465, "activity_lines": [ 44.673333, 42.075454, 34.672143, 29.801505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 49.349998, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 1283.65, "trend": 25.071666, "fair_value": 12.047368, "relative_strength": 140.581809, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.557159, "energy": 68.536107, "activity_lines": [ 46.299999, 43.898181, 36.624762, 31.446881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.799999, "volume": 1046, "typical_volume": 1320.8, "trend": 26.165, "fair_value": 12.285317, "relative_strength": 115.43643, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.040111, "energy": 59.153963, "activity_lines": [ 46.126666, 44.530908, 37.996666, 32.719677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.700001, "volume": 5093, "typical_volume": 1394.95, "trend": 26.906666, "fair_value": 12.457272, "relative_strength": 57.416744, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.199843, "energy": 35.233022, "activity_lines": [ 42.02, 42.912727, 38.19, 33.205806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.799999, "volume": 913, "typical_volume": 1256.75, "trend": 27.698333, "fair_value": 12.638883, "relative_strength": 61.748243, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.442026, "energy": 25.069688, "activity_lines": [ 39.259999, 41.752727, 38.520476, 33.77957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.0, "volume": 2666, "typical_volume": 1389.8, "trend": 28.321666, "fair_value": 12.801863, "relative_strength": 40.405396, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.631233, "energy": 22.331975, "activity_lines": [ 36.216666, 39.847272, 38.395238, 34.057097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.599998, "volume": 6848, "typical_volume": 1634.1, "trend": 29.14, "fair_value": 13.010149, "relative_strength": 65.308477, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.718192, "energy": 24.140512, "activity_lines": [ 36.039999, 39.265454, 38.82238, 34.720215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }