{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a6fd8d4-4135-4050-939f-a7591e5f9a5b", "symbol": "TERN", "name": "Tern Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 79.104, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.721, "architecture_energy": 49.077, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.625, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.41, "rotation_up": 64.49, "upward_expansion": 85.39, "deceleration": 48.14, "rotation_down": 17.84, "downward_expansion": 7.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013237, 0.012508, 0.011296, 0.010027 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.01375, "trend_reference": 0.008317, "distance_from_trend": 0.653307, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.018054, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.238395, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 76.185967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.75, "excess_performance": 1.698765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.653307, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.391523, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.238395, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.474859, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.76186, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.03455, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.75, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.972594, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23692738, "relative_activity": 1.573244, "balance": 6.972594, "dry_up": 1.430842, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230713, "annualized_volatility": 1.045619, "from_high_reference": -0.191176, "from_low_reference": 3.583333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008317, "fair_value_reference": 0.018054, "structural_low": 0.0035, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.139423, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.144241, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.152083, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.158797, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.533333, "worst_return": -0.229167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.551026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 16723098, "typical_volume": 14348334.55, "trend": 0.007825, "fair_value": 0.01879, "relative_strength": 71.495435, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.064026, "energy": 42.08028, "activity_lines": [ 0.012007, 0.011788, 0.010463, 0.009261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 29328737, "typical_volume": 15058020.25, "trend": 0.008058, "fair_value": 0.018334, "relative_strength": 81.123012, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.59002, "energy": 45.997485, "activity_lines": [ 0.012763, 0.012216, 0.010911, 0.009659 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01375, "volume": 23692738, "typical_volume": 15059802.0, "trend": 0.008317, "fair_value": 0.018054, "relative_strength": 76.185967, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.721221, "energy": 49.077475, "activity_lines": [ 0.013237, 0.012508, 0.011296, 0.010027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }