{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a7ae75a-339e-46b3-9acf-f0ebc63b0ca8", "symbol": "XRTX", "name": "XORTX Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.535, "architecture_energy": 30.962, "architecture_maturity": 12.073, "architecture_confidence": 95.604, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.13, "rotation_up": 19.67, "upward_expansion": 4.01, "deceleration": 46.36, "rotation_down": 45.31, "downward_expansion": 75.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.093333, 2.102727, 2.214717, 2.235156 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.13, "trend_reference": 2.2794, "distance_from_trend": -0.065544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.070766, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.736085, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.840584, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063936, "excess_performance": -0.123518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065544, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106316, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.736085, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003874, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.348406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019553, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063936, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58102, "relative_activity": 0.014989, "balance": 0.588369, "dry_up": 0.020078, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158631, "annualized_volatility": 0.721035, "from_high_reference": -0.697872, "from_low_reference": 0.234783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.2794, "fair_value_reference": 8.070766, "structural_low": 1.725, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.083974, "positive_rate": 0.394737, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": -0.055676, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.521766, "worst_return": -0.322917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.171895, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.188312, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.297297, "worst_return": -0.370558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.332775, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.345881, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.24031, "worst_return": -0.498182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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32.771208, "activity_lines": [ 2.095333, 2.139909, 2.267776, 2.281372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.025, "volume": 91371, "typical_volume": 3888640.6, "trend": 2.330233, "fair_value": 8.402311, "relative_strength": -36.560975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.798021, "energy": 41.907384, "activity_lines": [ 2.068, 2.108182, 2.242912, 2.260068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.12, "volume": 63253, "typical_volume": 3882839.25, "trend": 2.3059, "fair_value": 8.233073, "relative_strength": -32.983117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.334198, "energy": 34.674613, "activity_lines": [ 2.076667, 2.104, 2.228612, 2.246504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.13, "volume": 58102, "typical_volume": 3876377.8, "trend": 2.2794, "fair_value": 8.070766, "relative_strength": -34.840584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.535289, "energy": 30.96164, "activity_lines": [ 2.093333, 2.102727, 2.214717, 2.235156 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }