{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a7b5f6e-041b-4390-addb-aca4d0167543", "symbol": "BIP", "name": "Vibrant Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.747, "architecture_energy": 50.274, "architecture_maturity": 53.545, "architecture_confidence": 95.104, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.0, "rotation_up": 17.36, "upward_expansion": 8.2, "deceleration": 43.22, "rotation_down": 58.85, "downward_expansion": 81.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.128733, 0.130673, 0.132681, 0.135755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.124, "trend_reference": 0.1408, "distance_from_trend": -0.119318, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.091956, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.620791, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21519, "excess_performance": -0.370025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119318, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21519, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.215934, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1372500, "relative_activity": 5.86338, "balance": 0.215934, "dry_up": 2.058911, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07134, "annualized_volatility": 0.410139, "from_high_reference": -0.301648, "from_low_reference": 0.097345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1408, "fair_value_reference": 0.091956, "structural_low": 0.113, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.009008, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.363621, "worst_return": -0.378784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.022219, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.044571, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.428557, "worst_return": -0.275854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077924, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.039617, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.076925, "worst_return": -0.171082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.24325, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.152598, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.206352, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168832, 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202465.0, "trend": 0.143333, "fair_value": 0.090714, "relative_strength": -25.500536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.212885, "energy": 19.330043, "activity_lines": [ 0.1344, 0.132618, 0.135043, 0.13851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.129, "volume": 24200, "typical_volume": 162150.0, "trend": 0.142567, "fair_value": 0.091107, "relative_strength": -27.685338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.45661, "energy": 24.581376, "activity_lines": [ 0.132267, 0.131982, 0.134238, 0.137585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.132, "volume": 285400, "typical_volume": 167920.0, "trend": 0.1418, "fair_value": 0.09156, "relative_strength": -25.890361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.638832, "energy": 31.156146, "activity_lines": [ 0.131733, 0.132018, 0.133814, 0.136903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.124, "volume": 1372500, "typical_volume": 234080.0, "trend": 0.1408, "fair_value": 0.091956, "relative_strength": -30.620791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.747014, "energy": 50.273698, "activity_lines": [ 0.128733, 0.130673, 0.132681, 0.135755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }