{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a7bd1a2-a84a-498b-960e-1a7fa4a85b9d", "symbol": "600056", "name": "China Meheco Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.059, "architecture_energy": 22.188, "architecture_maturity": 84.312, "architecture_confidence": 69.674, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.49, "rotation_up": 28.58, "upward_expansion": 20.14, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 20.92, "downward_expansion": 54.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.39, 9.253322, 9.467098, 9.734274 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.4, "trend_reference": 10.068589, "distance_from_trend": -0.066403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.71897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12305, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.518711, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.135235, "excess_performance": -0.092031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066403, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052704, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12305, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033198, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135235, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.597, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85977309, "relative_activity": 0.883846, "balance": 0.597, "dry_up": 1.079466, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054329, "annualized_volatility": 0.278859, "from_high_reference": -0.245511, "from_low_reference": 0.095571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.068589, "fair_value_reference": 10.71897, "structural_low": 8.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.002705, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.006675, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 2.068265, "worst_return": -0.106073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.027966, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.032932, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 1.0369, "worst_return": -0.118113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051521, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.005945, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.740978, "worst_return": -0.127085, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.46, "volume": 160707587, "typical_volume": 93181852.05, "trend": 10.177589, "fair_value": 10.779379, "relative_strength": -5.952121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.227115, "energy": 52.885648, "activity_lines": [ 9.146192, 9.191493, 9.609113, 9.879248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.2, "volume": 102910324, "typical_volume": 94928979.6, "trend": 10.129922, "fair_value": 10.758315, "relative_strength": -9.342589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.588708, "energy": 38.33396, "activity_lines": [ 9.195333, 9.167462, 9.538267, 9.816178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.56, "volume": 70430709, "typical_volume": 95721370.8, "trend": 10.099589, "fair_value": 10.739559, "relative_strength": -5.88581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.999048, "energy": 26.743753, "activity_lines": [ 9.352, 9.223151, 9.507849, 9.779409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.4, "volume": 85977309, "typical_volume": 97276304.2, "trend": 10.068589, "fair_value": 10.71897, "relative_strength": -9.518711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.059198, "energy": 22.187809, "activity_lines": [ 9.39, 9.253322, 9.467098, 9.734274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }