{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a7c8164-69e4-4444-ab9a-41bb789fc434", "symbol": "SMOL", "name": "Smoltek Nanotech Holding AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.476, "architecture_energy": 14.806, "architecture_maturity": 50.581, "architecture_confidence": 71.983, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.67, "rotation_up": 15.38, "upward_expansion": 40.88, "deceleration": 85.79, "rotation_down": 41.19, "downward_expansion": 34.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.546667, 1.849285, 1.970969, 1.699403 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.385, "trend_reference": 1.314523, "distance_from_trend": 0.053614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.298567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06656, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 34.427355, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.560411, "excess_performance": 2.498917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.736949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06656, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.344274, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.197742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.560411, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.741915, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6687283, "relative_activity": 0.466413, "balance": 1.741915, "dry_up": 0.913206, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.701502, "annualized_volatility": 1.874002, "from_high_reference": -0.768395, "from_low_reference": 3.328125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.314523, "fair_value_reference": 1.298567, "structural_low": 0.381, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.056368, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.117562, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.051064, "worst_return": -0.317734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.010638, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.010638, "worst_return": 0.010638, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.615969, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.664364, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.615969, "worst_return": -0.615969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.735758, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.847475, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.735758, "worst_return": -0.735758, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.46875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.205128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.367978, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164835, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.150088, "energy": 27.485961, "activity_lines": [ 2.312, 2.462062, 1.994906, 1.609992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.9, "volume": 5467378, "typical_volume": 12400896.7, "trend": 1.208556, "fair_value": 1.337029, "relative_strength": 103.6677, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.269253, "energy": 19.454788, "activity_lines": [ 2.14, 2.358595, 2.029331, 1.657913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.535, "volume": 9203013, "typical_volume": 12774247.9, "trend": 1.246656, "fair_value": 1.324753, "relative_strength": 58.691386, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.913804, "energy": 18.579798, "activity_lines": [ 1.872333, 2.188764, 2.022028, 1.678974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.46, "volume": 31015351, "typical_volume": 14264621.05, "trend": 1.281689, "fair_value": 1.310715, "relative_strength": 46.498006, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.69584, "energy": 15.688472, "activity_lines": [ 1.687333, 2.018116, 2.002496, 1.692738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.385, "volume": 6687283, "typical_volume": 14337686.5, "trend": 1.314523, "fair_value": 1.298567, "relative_strength": 34.427355, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.475749, "energy": 14.806144, "activity_lines": [ 1.546667, 1.849285, 1.970969, 1.699403 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }