{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a7d5860-3350-424a-b22f-9eb582d88f8c", "symbol": "1480", "name": "TM", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.212, "architecture_energy": 93.074, "architecture_maturity": 63.446, "architecture_confidence": 81.234, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.28, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 86.96, "downward_expansion": 99.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.071333, 8.368364, 8.747905, 8.955226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 7.91, "trend_reference": 9.230667, "distance_from_trend": -0.143074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.728207, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.262691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.80544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171728, "excess_performance": -0.6131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055171, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.262691, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038517, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171728, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.168756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21002, "relative_activity": 0.530696, "balance": 0.168756, "dry_up": 0.929255, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037927, "annualized_volatility": 0.205659, "from_high_reference": -0.253774, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.230667, "fair_value_reference": 10.728207, "structural_low": 7.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025578, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.069226, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.097436, "worst_return": -0.097395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.159205, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.019704, "worst_return": -0.059356, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.2876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034483, "worst_return": 0.034483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9.244333, 9.359806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.5, "volume": 31000, "typical_volume": 47282.5, "trend": 9.496333, "fair_value": 10.802908, "relative_strength": -37.820846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.363159, "energy": 83.05551, "activity_lines": [ 8.796, 8.988182, 9.16719, 9.291871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.36, "volume": 68097, "typical_volume": 45082.35, "trend": 9.436667, "fair_value": 10.785704, "relative_strength": -39.443662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.717307, "energy": 88.812074, "activity_lines": [ 8.62, 8.854, 9.081714, 9.218559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.14, "volume": 31000, "typical_volume": 43264.85, "trend": 9.369667, "fair_value": 10.767203, "relative_strength": -39.528146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.254719, "energy": 93.60964, "activity_lines": [ 8.42, 8.693636, 8.978333, 9.134903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.97, "volume": 27000, "typical_volume": 40374.85, "trend": 9.295333, "fair_value": 10.747778, "relative_strength": -41.272078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.248689, "energy": 94.713961, "activity_lines": [ 8.221333, 8.524364, 8.861905, 9.044602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 7.91, "volume": 21002, "typical_volume": 39574.45, "trend": 9.230667, "fair_value": 10.728207, "relative_strength": -42.80544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.211561, "energy": 93.073909, "activity_lines": [ 8.071333, 8.368364, 8.747905, 8.955226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }