{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a8fc1ef-6da2-49aa-b8c7-f3acccac8829", "symbol": "DFSD", "name": "DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST SHORT DURATION FIXED INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 78.589, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.51, "architecture_energy": 34.371, "architecture_maturity": 8.444, "architecture_confidence": 91.465, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.65, "rotation_up": 19.2, "upward_expansion": 4.02, "deceleration": 48.33, "rotation_down": 51.34, "downward_expansion": 77.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.348307, 47.369356, 47.437532, 47.493409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.45, "trend_reference": 47.569525, "distance_from_trend": -0.002513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.008624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054242, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.914107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006919, "excess_performance": -0.132544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002513, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 8.8e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054242, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016131, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.04316, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2430606, "relative_activity": 0.971379, "balance": 1.04316, "dry_up": 1.014925, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004645, "annualized_volatility": 0.026923, "from_high_reference": -0.012854, "from_low_reference": 0.019347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.569525, "fair_value_reference": 45.008624, "structural_low": 47.145, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 47.397232, 47.448176, 47.505513, 47.556747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.37707, "volume": 2462361, "typical_volume": 2468210.5, "trend": 47.591137, "fair_value": 44.890618, "relative_strength": -8.349206, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.70498, "energy": 46.546806, "activity_lines": [ 47.37819, 47.430293, 47.488215, 47.542708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.22, "volume": 2860295, "typical_volume": 2482831.6, "trend": 47.580378, "fair_value": 44.929515, "relative_strength": -7.868281, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.090174, "energy": 60.364632, "activity_lines": [ 47.325309, 47.387951, 47.459013, 47.518764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.31, "volume": 2405005, "typical_volume": 2497238.2, "trend": 47.572618, "fair_value": 44.968536, "relative_strength": -8.377927, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.136123, "energy": 54.294817, "activity_lines": [ 47.307929, 47.3646, 47.441146, 47.50132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.45, "volume": 2430606, "typical_volume": 2502222.2, "trend": 47.569525, "fair_value": 45.008624, "relative_strength": -10.914107, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.509514, "energy": 34.371288, "activity_lines": [ 47.348307, 47.369356, 47.437532, 47.493409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }