{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a902949-4422-4589-a917-340d6a4b57d7", "symbol": "RMY", "name": "RMA Global Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.394, "architecture_energy": 67.862, "architecture_maturity": 69.035, "architecture_confidence": 94.558, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 24.98, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.22, "rotation_down": 58.29, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.023867, 0.025045, 0.02885, 0.033023 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.022, "trend_reference": 0.038717, "distance_from_trend": -0.431769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.05158, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.573479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.521548, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.55102, "excess_performance": -0.614726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.431769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112003, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.573479, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.465215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.458269, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.55102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455065, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17563, "relative_activity": 0.036251, "balance": 0.455065, "dry_up": 1.814886, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176573, "annualized_volatility": 0.961591, "from_high_reference": -0.690141, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.038717, "fair_value_reference": 0.05158, "structural_low": 0.022, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.025, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.040861, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.413043, "worst_return": -0.266668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.126984, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.118323, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.523811, "worst_return": -0.416668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.111112, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.096697, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.928571, "worst_return": -0.349206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.344262, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.398843, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.227848, "worst_return": -0.450274, "sufficient": true } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.267606, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057971, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022222, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.711234, "energy": 86.998737, "activity_lines": [ 0.026933, 0.028927, 0.033462, 0.03749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.022, "volume": 3086359, "typical_volume": 515674.85, "trend": 0.0413, "fair_value": 0.052647, "relative_strength": -44.851539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.646516, "energy": 91.41561, "activity_lines": [ 0.025067, 0.027291, 0.0319, 0.036198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.025, "volume": 315456, "typical_volume": 509735.7, "trend": 0.0406, "fair_value": 0.052295, "relative_strength": -37.055335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.104633, "energy": 68.675526, "activity_lines": [ 0.024933, 0.026527, 0.030829, 0.035146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0255, "volume": 97703, "typical_volume": 509429.15, "trend": 0.039817, "fair_value": 0.051952, "relative_strength": -36.781848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.991428, "energy": 63.766965, "activity_lines": [ 0.024967, 0.026018, 0.029948, 0.034172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.022, "volume": 17563, "typical_volume": 484476.85, "trend": 0.038717, "fair_value": 0.05158, "relative_strength": -46.521548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.393656, "energy": 67.861958, "activity_lines": [ 0.023867, 0.025045, 0.02885, 0.033023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }